存储房地产投资信托基金2025年第一季度收益总结进入租赁旺季的稳健季度

Equity Research USA | REITs Storage 1Q25 Earnings Wrap: Solid QuarterHeading into Peak Leasing Season Storage REITs reiterated SS Rev growth guides as 1Q trends came in mostly inline to slightly better than expected. Interestingly, REITs appear to be shiftingaway from aggressively cutting move-in rates to preserve occupancy, althoughsustained pricing power will require an improvement in the housing market, CUBE Outperformed While NSA Lagged:CUBE stock outperformed (up +6.0% vs Storage REITaverage +2.8%, and +1.5% for the IYR) as 1Q SS Rev growth came in better than expected, whileApril trends showed continued strength as move-in rates improved to -2% Y/Y from -8% Y/Y in 1Q,although occupancy modestly gapped out in April to -90 bps Y/Y vs. -50 bps in 1Q (a strategic Strategy Shift on the Horizon?Self-storage REITs appear to be slowly shifting their revenuemanagement playbook by holding the line on move-in rates (even at the expense of occupancy), areversal from the 2023–2024 strategy that leaned heavily on discounting to preserve rental activity,followed by aggressive rent increases. We think this is because move-in rates had fallen so farbelow portfolio averages that the runway to bring customers up to realized rent psf (via ECRIs)became prohibitively long, putting pressure on SS Rev growth. EXR (and to a lesser extent NSA) CA SB-709 Rent Cap Removed — Positive vs Initial Fears:California’s SB709, which initiallyproposed rent control measures for self-storage operators (capping increases at CPI+5% or 10%,whichever is lower), has been significantly watered down. The amended version focuses solely ondisclosure, requiring CA operators to disclose if a tenant received a promotional rent, its duration, Jonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.com Ahmed Mehri * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8456 | amehri@jefferies.com spillover. We also note that LA County’s wildfire-driven rent moratorium runs through July 31, withany decision to extend it likely surfacing in late June—another reminder that local rent interventionremains a live risk, and our base case calls for another temporary extension. Updating our ECRI Math Following Added Disclosures from CUBE & NSA:The latest update toCUBE & NSA's disclosures, which now include trailing 5-qtr move-in/out rates, allows us to backinto their ECRI contribution in a more accurate manner (we relied on our web scrapes + internalassumptions for our previous math). Our new ECRI calculation shows NSA's ECRIs are in the 12% Source: Jefferies, Company Materials, Sequentum Summary of Changes Key Assumptions Driving Our Models Notes: 1.CUBE and EXR's pre-2023 move-in/out rates are JEFe.2.NSA does not disclose rental/vacate activity. Our data is based on IR provided insights Source: Jefferies, Company Materials, Sequentum Street Rates Trends Source: Jefferies, Vertical Knowledge Note: Mark-to-market compares SS portfolio Rent PSF vs web scraped gross street rent PSF Source: Jefferies, Vertical KnowledgeNote: Mark-to-market compares SS portfolio Rent PSF vs web scraped street rent PSF (on a gross or net effective basis) Financials The Long View: Public Storage Investment Thesis / Where We Differ PSA is well positioned for organic & inorganic growth given the size of its non-SS pool (>20% of portfolio square footage is in the non-SS pool in 2024) andthe strength of its balance sheet (3.9x net debt & Preferred to EBITDA), whichshould support FFO growth over the next couple of years. Additionally, thecompany runs a strong revenue management platform as highlighted by its Downside Scenario,$232, -25% Upside Scenario,$404, +31% Base Case,$351, +13% •No acquisitions•Occupancy losses accelerate YoY•Rents decline sooner than expected; Springleasing season disappoints •Accelerating acquisition volume•Limited occupancy losses•LA ECRI restrictions are lifted sooner thanexpected •Occupancy losses are contained to a range inline with normal seasonality•Lower YoY move in rates pressure in-place Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issues: 1) Energy Managementis a top ESG issue for REITs as energy efficient buildingsattracts environmentally conscious tenants, which helps increase rents and drives utility savings down.As property owners, REITs are in a unique position to help their tenants achieve their own environmentalgoals and spread best practices for energy management. 2)Product Design & Lifecycle Managementare •Better-than-expected SS NOI growth•Acquisition volume greater than currentexpectations•Worse-than-expected impact from new supply Company Targets: 1)Expand generation and storage capacity to over 1,000 properties by 2025.2)Install Qs for Mgmt: 1)What metrics do you use to determine material ESG issues?2)What is the timeline forsetting new energy/water consumption reduction targets? ESG Sector Deep Dive: REITs Financials: Public Storage The Long View: National Storage Affiliates Trust Investment Thesis / Where