加拿大皇家银行2025年第二季度初步观察：通过强劲的储备积累实现盈利

May 5, 2025March 28, 2025February 27, 2025 John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.com Segment HighlightsDomestic Retail: Net interest margins were up 6bps while average loans were up 0.1% sequentiallyand 8.5% from a year ago. Revenues held in while efficiency improved in the quarter, withearnings down solely because of higher provisions on performing (impaired provisions were downsequentially).Commercial: Margins were down 7bps while average loans were up 1.5% against the first quarterand 22% (HSBC assisted) year-over-year. Revenues saw a decline, largely related to fewer days inthe quarter while the overall decline in earnings was largely attributable to a spike in provisions onperforming loans.Wealth Management: Net interest margins for the segment were down 6bps while average loanswere up 1.1% sequentially and 8.3% from a year ago. However, AUA and AUM were down 2.5% and4.5%, respectively, weighing on revenues. This along with a compression in the segment's pre-taxmargin resulted in a decrease in earnings.Insurance: The segment's contribution declined from a very strong first quarter into what we wouldconsider a more normalized run-rate. That said, we note that premiums and the CSM were downagainst both comparative periods.Capital Markets: After an exceptionally strong first quarter, earnings for the segment moderatedas expected on the back of revenue declines. While provisions were relatively stable in the quarter,impaired provisions were down materially with performing provisions providing the offset.RY will hold its earnings conference call at 8:30am. Dial-in details: 416-340-2217 or 1-866-696-5910(toll-free) and pass code 3587332#.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionRoyal Bank of CanadaRBC Financial Group is one of Canada's largest banks, providing personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, investor services,and capital markets products and services across North America, as well select services in more than 25 countries on a global basis.Company Valuation/RisksRoyal Bank of CanadaOur price target of $180 is based on an 14.0x forward P/E against FY25E EPS of $12.87.Risks to our investment thesis and valuation include the following:•Post integration of HSBC Canada, client retention efforts results in lower-than-expected loan yields and greater marketing and business developmentspend, weighing on the bottom line and the anticipated synergies.•On the macro front, a more depressed economic slowdown weighs on credit, lending volumes, and non-interest revenue lines, including consumerspending and banking activity, and markets-related revenues.Analyst Certification:I, John Aiken, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Joe Ng, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Aria Samarzadeh, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:John Aiken, CFA is employed by Jefferies Securities, Inc. , a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified asa research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject tothe FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Joe Ng, CFA is employed by Jefferies Securities, Inc. , a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as aresearch analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to theFINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Aria Samarzadeh, CFA is employ