加拿大国家银行2025年第二季度每股收益初步观察

2Q25 EPS First Look First Look Results in 2Q25 were modestly above consensus, driven bybetter-than-expected fee income partiallyoffsetby lowerthan anticipated NII and higher PCL and tax rate whileexpenses were essentially in line. Credit quality benign exCWB. 2025 outlook unchanged. NA.TO/NA CTEQUAL WEIGHTCanada & Latin AmericaBanksPOSITIVEPrice TargetCAD 140.00Price (27-May-25)CAD 129.36Potential Upside/Downside+8.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research 2025 Outlook (Unchanged) Canada & Latin America BanksBrian Morton, CFA+1 212 526 2163brian.morton@barclays.comBCI, US EPS:Mid-single digit growth (ex amortization of the net fair value mark)ROE:~15% (ex amortization of the net fair value mark)Expenses:Positive operating leverageCredit:Impaired PCL between 25-35bps Key Takeaways EPS beat.NA reported 2Q25 EPS of C$2.17. Excluding C$0.22 CWB acquisition and integrationcharges, C$0.04 of intangible amortization related to CWB and C$0.42 initial CWB provisions,EPS was C$2.85. Consensus was C$2.40. Compared to consensus, the beat was driven by abetter-than-expected fee income partiallyoffsetby lower than anticipated NII and higher PCLand tax rate while expenses were essentially in line. Revenue higher.Total adjusted revenue increased 32.7% y-o-y and 13.0% sequentially. Bookvalue increased 11.7% to C$76.13 (1.7x). Its CET1 ratio decreased 20bps to 13.4%. It generatedan adjusted ROE of 15.6% (-200bps). Average diluted share count increased 14.2%. NII higher.Reported net interest income rose 24% to C$1,205mn (includes net benefit ofC$251mn from CWB). Excluding the impact of trading, adjusted NII rose 11.4%. On an adjustedbasis, NIM declined 3bps to 2.23%. Loan growth.Total loans grew 15.8% from 1Q25 (+1% ex CEB). Compared to 2Q24 (ex CWB)balances were higher in commercial banking (+14%), personal banking (+4%) and ABA (+7%),partiallyoffsetby a decline in corporate banking (-6%) while Credigy was flat. Deposits higher.Total deposit balances increased 12% sequentially (+0.5% ex CWB). Comparedto 2Q24 (ex CWB), personal deposits increased 9% while non-retail deposits were up 11%. Fees higher.Adjusted non-interest income gained 9.6% from 1Q25 with increases inunderwriting and advisory (+17%), investment management/trust (+7%) and trading (+15%). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.Completed: 28-May-25, 13:21 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 13:21 GMTRestricted - External Costs.Adjusted non-interest expenses increased 11% led by higher technology (+12.5%)followed by compensation (+11.1%) and other (+31%) while occupancy costs (-11.3%) waslower. CWB added C$155mn to adjusted expenses. Its adjustedefficiencyratio in 2Q25 was49.3% compared to 53.5% in 2Q24 and 50.2% in 1Q25. Theeffectivetax rate was 24.0%compared to 20.5% in 2Q24 and 22.6% in 1Q25. Asset Quality.GILs increased 42.6% to C$2.805bn (ex Credigy POCI). The GIL ratio increased19bps to 98bps (+7bps to 86bps ex CWB). Net GIL formations jumped 118% to C$936mn. PCL higher.Total PCL increased 115% to C$545mn reflecting CWB initial provision of C$230mnwith impaired PCL increasing C$23mn to C$219mn and performing PCL up C$258mn toC$315mn. The PCL ratio increased 38bp to 79bps (+4bps to 45bps adjusted). FIGURE 1. 2Q25 Results vs. Expectations (C$mn) Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports, Bloomberg consensus Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Brian Morton, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various