多伦多道明银行2025年第二季度每股收益初步观察

First LookTD.TO/TD CTCanada & Latin AmericaBanksPrice TargetPrice (21-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchCanada & Latin America BanksBrian Morton, CFA+1 212 526 2163brian.morton@barclays.comBCI, US Restricted - External UNDERWEIGHTPOSITIVECAD 81.00CAD 89.90-9.9% Fee income lower:Adjusted non-interest income declined 2.5% from 1Q25, driven by decreasesin US Retail and wealth Management & Insurance.Costs lower sequentially:Adjusted expenses decreased 0.9% q-o-q but increased 12% y-o-ywith 1/4 of the y-o-y growth driven by variable compensation, FX and Strategic Card Partners. Itexpects F2025 expense growth at the upper end of the 5-7% range (assuming F2024 levels ofvariable compensation, FX and SCP).GILs lower:GILs declined 10.8% sequentially to C$4.866bn. Its GIL ratio decreased 5bps to51bps. GIL formations were C$2.031bn, down 16% from 1Q25.FIGURE 1. TD 2Q25 Results vs. ExpectationsSource: Barclays Research, Company Reports, Bloomberg2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Brian Morton, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Toronto-Dominion Bank(TD.TO, 21-May-2025, CAD 89.90), Underweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/I/J/K/L/M/NUnless otherwise indicated, prices are sourced from Bloomberg and reflect the closing price in the relevant trading market, which may not be the lastavailable closing price at the time of publication.Disclosure Legend:A:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliatehas been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosedofferof securities of the issuer in theprevious 12 months.B:An employee or non-executive director of Barclays PLC is a director of this issuer.CD:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliateis a market-maker in debt securities issued by this issuer.CE:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliateis a market-maker in equity securities issued by this issuer.CH:Barclays Bank PLC and/or its group companies makes, or will make, a market in the securities (as defined under paragraph 16.2 (k) of the HK SFCCode of Conduct) in respect of this issuer.D:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliatehas received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.E:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliateexpects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within thenext 3 months.FA:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliatebeneficially owns 1% or more of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with USregulations.FB:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliatebeneficially owns a long position of more than 0.5% of a class of