加拿大帝国商业银行2025年第二季度初步观察：拨备好于预期

April 21, 2025March 13, 2025February 27, 2025 John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.com Segment HighlightsCanadian Personal and Business Banking: Net interest margins increased by 3bps while averageloans were down 0.2% sequentially but up 1.7% from a year ago. While earnings were ahead ofexpectations, the segment faced headwinds against the first quarter in the form of lower revenues,higher provisions and a step back in efficiency.Canadian Commercial and Wealth: Margins gave up a single basis point while average loans wereup 1.4% against the first quarter and were up 8.0% year-over-year. The contribution from the segmentwas down sequentially on the back of higher provisions and lower revenues.U.S. Commercial and Wealth: Margins declined by 6bps while average loans were up 0.3%sequentially and 3.9% from a year ago (up 0.9% and 3.9%, respectively, in USD). Earnings were downagainst the first quarter as revenues eased and the segment took higher provisions.Capital Markets: While revenues held in for the segment, higher provisions and expenses weighedon the results, causing a sequential decline in earnings.CM will hold its earnings conference call at 7:30am. Dial-in details: 416-340-2217 or 1-800-806-5484(toll-free) and pass code 1073773#.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionCIBCCIBC is a diversified North American financial institution providing personal and business banking, commercial banking and wealth management,capital markets and direct financial services businesses across Canada and the United States.Company Valuation/RisksCIBCOur base case price target of $89 for CM is based on an 12.0x forward P/E against FY25E EPS of $7.41.Risks to our investment thesis and valuation include:•CIBC's outsized exposure to Canada results in a more lagged growth vs. peers that have a greater footprint and contribution from a much largerU.S. market.•On the credit front, a weaker-than-expected economic outlook could see the potential of increased provisions in 2024, weighing on our earningsand estimates.•While a more depressed economic slowdown puts greater pressure on credit, lending volumes, and non-interest revenue lines, including consumerspending and banking activity, and markets related revenues would also be negatively impacted.Analyst Certification:I, John Aiken, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Joe Ng, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Aria Samarzadeh, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:John Aiken, CFA is employed by Jefferies Securities, Inc. , a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified asa research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject tothe FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Joe Ng, CFA is employed by Jefferies Securities, Inc. , a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as aresearch analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to theFINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Aria Samarzadeh, CFA is employed by Jefferies Securities, Inc. , a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject tothe FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appear