加拿大帝国商业银行2025年第二季度收益回顾：稳步前行

2024A2025E2026E6.737.408.268.596.727.407.94---25,606.028,695.430,253.4 -- John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.com The Long View: CIBCInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferIn a more challenging earnings environment, CIBC's strategic priorities,including emphasizing growth in key client segments with strong returns,maintaining discipline in resource allocation with a focus on returns overbalance sheet growth, and leveraging its capabilities to drive simplificationand efficiency could lead to earnings outperformance and relative multipleexpansion.Base Case,C$94, +0%Our base-case price target of $94 for CM is basedon a 11.0x forward P/E against FY26E EPS of$8.59.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues1)Data Security:Commitment to protecting against data breaches and identifying and addressingsecurity risks.2)Business Ethics:Focusing on highest professional and ethical standards in the industry and managingrisks and opportunities surrounding ethical conduct of business.Company Targets1) At least 5% leaders from the Black community in Board-approved executive roles by 2025 globally.2) Achieving net-zero GHG emissions from operational and financing activities by 2050.3) Mobilizing $300 billion in sustainable financing by 2030 (2018–2030).Questions to Management1) What is the strategy for carbon-intensive lending portfolios; what is the near-term & long-term plan forlending?2) What actions are the company taking to achieve its diversity & inclusion goals?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,C$104, +11%Emerging from a soft landing and no recession,an improving U.S. economy generates a better-than-expected performance from the bank's U.S.commercialbanking and wealth managementplatform, as our upside scenario of $104 for CM isbased on a 10% increase to its FY26E EPS, againsta forward P/E of 11.0x. Downside Scenario,C$77, -18%Weighedby weaker economic growth and aprolonged slowdown hitting both sides of theborder, our downside scenario of $77 for CM isbased on a 10% decline to its FY26E EPS, againsta forward P/E of 10.0x.CatalystsTheeconomic recovery fuels CIBC's organicgrowth, and, in a more positive environment, thebank finds a compatible acquisition target thatenhances its U.S. commercial banking and wealthmanagement business strategy. 2 Better Than Expected Provisions Drives Q2 BeatSecond Quarter Results:PositiveOutlook:NeutralEarnings quality:Earnings quality improved in the quarter as CIBC managed to earn through higherprovisions, with a decline in trading and overall capital markets revenues.Operating leverage/performance:On a sequential basis, the decline in expenses was outpaced bythat of revenues, generating negative operating leverage in the quarter.Risks:With solid reserves and capital, we assess CM's relative risk as below that of the average forthe group.Figure 1 - CM - EPS Summary.Q2-25 EARNINGS PER SHARE OVERVIEW(in C$ millions)ReportedAdjustments:Adjustments, netAdjusted Core Earningsvs. JEF - Above/(Below)vs. Consensus - Above/(Below)Source: Company reports, JefferiesCM reported adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share, above consensus expectations of $1.87 and ourestimate of $1.68. We note that each of CIBC's operating segments came in better than anticipated,with the lone exception, its U.S. segment. Against consensus forecasts, CM beat on lower provisionsand higher revenues. However, we do note that underlying growth has moderated (not a CIBC-specific issue) and it took a bit of a step back on efficiency.On the credit front, gross impaired loans were relatively stable in the quarter, with a slight increase inprovisions for both performing and impaired loans. Higher provisions impeded the earnings growthin each of the segments but, overall, provisions came in below consensus expectations. Totalprovisions for credit losses were $605 million, below the Street's estimate of $655 million, albeit up5.5% from Q1 and up 17.7% from a year ago. Juxtaposed against the higher provisions in the quarter,CM's regulatory capital ratio declined by 10 bps to 13.4%.By segment, Canadian Personal and Business Banking net interest margins increased by 3 bps whileaverage loans were down 0.2% sequentially but up 1.7% from a year ago. While earnings were aheadof expectations, the segment faced headwinds against the first quarter in the form of lower revenues,higher provisions and a step back in efficiency. Canadian Commercial and Wealth margins gave upa single basis point while average loans were up 1.4% against the first quarter and were up 8.0%year-over-year. The contribution from the segment was down sequentially on the back of higherprovisions and lower revenues. South of the border, U.S. Commercia