合法性影响：特朗普2.0面临司法制衡，延长投资者的不确定性

Restricted - External Ben McLannahan*+44 (0)20 3134 9586ben.mclannahan@barclays.comBarclays, UKJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, USJill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, USSharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK Our roster of calls and events this week includes:•Tarifftwists and turns. Mon 2 June, 7:15am (NY). Register here.•The EUR rates round-up. Mon 2 June, 1pm (LDN). Register here.•Extra Credit: Is real estate really resilient?. Mon 2 June, 1:30pm (LDN). Register here.•European Bank Capital Bootcamp. First of 3 sessions, Mon 2 June, 2:30pm (LDN). Registerhere.•Unpacking Section 899. With expertJeffLevey. Mon 2 June, 10:30am (NY). Register here.•ECB preview. Tue 3 June, 2pm (LDN). Register here.Research highlights•Is the US serious about S899?Markets began to fixate last week on a provision of the US taxbill that would allow the government to tax US income of most non-residents fromjurisdictions that levy one or more “unfair foreign taxes”. This would reduce theeffectivereturn on US assets, including Treasuries, and could lead to capital outflows, pushing upyields. We see risks for European companies generating US revenues, and domiciled incountries that have enacted digital services taxes or are implementing the OECD’s UnderTaxed Payment Rule. Global Synthesis: Complexities and complications, 30 May 2025; EquityMarket Review:Tariffschaos and s899 fog, 30 May 2025°Join our call on S899 on Mon 2 June at 10:30am (NY) withJeffLevey, MD, WashingtonCouncil Ernst & Young 2 Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. US banks are lending a lot to NBFIsNote: Excludes unfunded commitmentsSource: S&P Capital IQ, Barclays Research2 June 2025 FIGURE 6. NBFI loans are a rising portion of assetsNote: Category III total assets: $250-700bn; Category IV: $100-250bnSource: S&P Capital IQ, Barclays Research•US consumers are turning increasingly cautious.Our regular cross-sector analysis revealedashiftin sentiment around the US consumer, as most analysts have turned mixed-to-slightlynegative. In general, there is a high degree of uncertainty and a lack of confidence, due largelyto policy-related headwinds. We see risks of higher subprime auto and unsecured personalloan delinquencies. State of the US Consumer: On edge, 27 May 2025; US Economics: SecondQ1 GDP: Updated estimates underscore decelerating activity, 29 May 2025•Systemic risks from non-banking lending are low, but set to grow.US banks areincreasingly lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) instead of directly tocommercial and industrial (C&I) borrowers. This trend reflects a structuralshiftin thefinancial system, with NBFI loans now comprising over 10% of the total at US banks. The keyrisk to banks is a correlated and severe shock to borrowers. HG Banks: Risks andOpportunities of NBFI Lending, 27 May 2025•To QT or not QT?A September end to active sales of gilts by the BoE would not be justified,according to the Bank's stated criteria. Accordingly, we expect the MPC to unwind its giltholdings at a pace of £100bn per annum from that point. But from a broader public-interest3 perspective, there are grounds for a pause. A slower pace of reduction would allow the Bank'scurrent liquidity facilities time to build and absorb reserve demand in a more orderlyfashion. Bank of England: Keeping QT on the QT, 30 May 2025; UK: Rates Strategy: Fiscal riskand the curve, 29 May 2025China's dominance in rare-earth refining is unmatched. The US-Ukraine minerals deal hasofferedrelief to rare-earth prices, which soaredafterBeijing’s April export curbs. The nextagreements could involve the DRC, for cobalt, and Guinea, for aluminium ores. But there is nogetting round China’s near-monopoly in refining of these critical inputs, powering AI, EVs andweapons. Global Trade: The real battle for minerals is not in the ground, 29 May 2025Korea’s presidential election this week could lead to fiscal expansion, whoever wins.Voting has begun ahead of the poll on 3 June, in which the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK)'scandidate, Lee Jae-Myung, squaresoffagainst the People Power Party (PPP)'s Kim Moon-Soo. Policy proposalsdifferin many ways, but wider deficits are a common theme. That couldconstrain the Bank of Korea, if inflationary pressures rise. Korea: Presidential election: Priceydecision to make, 28 May 2025; Korea: BoK: Dovish on numbers, but not on stance, 29 May2025Nawrocki's win in Poland implies another two years ofdifficultcohabitation.Victory forthe presidential candidate from the nationalist opposition PiS party is a blow for PrimeMinister Tusk’s government, which may continue to struggle to pass legislation. Outgoingpresident Duda, another PiS nominee, had used his veto powers to block Tusk’s plannedjudicial overhaul and other reforms since the PM's coalition ousted PiS fromofficein2023. Before the result we expected the PLN to selloffon a Nawrocki victory, and saw value in