美洲外汇早报

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.The ‘triple threat’ is back amid challenging headlinesUS data may feel more ‘Goldilocks’ than recessionaryCHF fails to outperform despite better than expected GDPA combination of trade, geopolitical,and fiscal concerns has prompted a returnof the ‘triple threat’, with US bonds, equities,and the USD all weaker. PresidentTrump’s decision to boost steel tariffs to 50% reintroduced volatility in US tradepolicy. The prior relief from a pause in US-China tariffs continues to erode with risingtrade tensions over the weekend. Markets are also fretting about US fiscal health,with US Treasury Secretary Bessent having to reaffirm that the US will not default.The conflict in Ukraine also became more prominent in the market’s risk mood. All ofwhich is creating a risk off/dollar off mood that means even traditional “risk on” playslike the AUD and NZD are doing well. The danger for markets is that they lazilyextrapolatetoday’s mood into a long-term forecast of structural USD weakness. All ofthese drivers can shift in tone as part of ongoing trade negotiations, for example. USeconomic data can continue to show the resilience that undermines gloomierforecasts for the USD. For now, however, USD sentiment looks set to be soft.US economic data continues to frustrate the more bearish USD narratives, fornow at least.As we note in ourFX Snap: The Week in 60 seconds, US activity datahas begun to surprise on the upside, while inflation surprises have mostly beendovish. It creates, as the Fed’s Waller this morning described it, a case for “goodnews” rate cuts that would feel like Goldilocksratherthan a recession scenario. Overthe weekend, the Fed’s Daly said that “two rate cuts seem like a good forecast”(Bloomberg).The market is pricing53bp of cuts by year-end. We will hear from Fedspeakers today, including Chair Powell.The FX market has to react to headlines, butthe Fed does not. Its focus remains on the data, and this week’s employment reportis a critical part of the mix. After April’s healthy report, the consensus looks foranother relatively resilient set of data with NPF of 125K and a steady unemploymentrate at 4.2%. If correct, it would allow the Fed’s patience to extend,which may pointto a range-bound USD ratherthan a persistently weaker one.The CHF is stronger this morning against the retreating USD, but only stableagainst the EUR despite the “risk off” mood and better Swiss data. Perhaps thisreflects the EUR’s allure as a “not the dollar” currency, allowing it to compete with themore traditional safe-haven CHF. Or maybe the markets think the CHF has movedhigh enough given it is the best performing G10 currency so far this quarter. Thismorning’s data showed stronger than expectedSwissQ1 GDP, flattered byacceleratingexports to the US, but also showing resilience in the domestic servicesector. This may help boost SNB confidence that inflation will return into positiveterritory after a likely brief excursion below zero in the coming months. However, thethreat of SNBFX intervention to weaken the CHF remains in play and, in the end,perhaps this is the culprit curtailing further CHF outperformance.Americas FX Morning Bullets2 June 2025 ◆◆ Today brings the final readings of manufacturing sector health acrosstheG10, but theFX market isnot really playing relative economic stories. The final reading on theEurozone’s manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the flash reading of 49.4, but Germanywas revised lower, and France higher. Spain did better than expected. Italy did worse. But thesector remainsstagnant at best. The UK’s final reading was revised higher but at 46.1 is hardlycause for cheer. GBP is stronger against the USD, but little changed against the EUR,suggesting local news has no traction for now. It is just a “big dollar” market. Todaywill bring theUS final reading for the Manufacturing PMI, with the flash reading suggesting the sectorremained in expansion territory in May. It will be interesting to see iftoday’s release of theISMManufacturingcontinues to paint a slightly gloomier picture than the PMI series again. Theemployment component will also offer some clues for Friday’s US labour market data.In Brazil this week, the market will focus on the IOF (tax on financial operations) discussions inCongress. Last week, Congress threatened to suspend the increase in the taxation enacted by theexecutive branch the prior week and demanded more consistent measures to ensure compliance withfiscal targets. The administration is expected to present some alternatives to party leaders on 10 June,but before that, attention will turn to what those alternatives might be. There are two alternativescenarios, in our view. One in which there will be a compromise between Congress and theadministration, with the proposed solution likely involving keeping some parts of the or