锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures锡：价格先行跌落，谨慎追空强弱分析：偏弱价格区间：245000-260000元/吨周度锡价大幅回落，周度跌幅为5.45%。此前周报我们多次提醒，临近年中建议关注锡价基于宏观面需求走弱、基本面供给释放的逻辑引至的逢高做空机会。本周锡价提前交易，价格先行跌落。消息面上，市场一度传言佤邦复产进度，另外近期多数商品下跌，宏观情绪偏差，而有色板块整体估值较高，锡作为远端基本面较弱的品种亦被情绪交易。然而基本面仍然维持强现实弱预期格局，据钢联了解目前仅少数缴费办理采矿证的企业，多数头部矿贸商仍持观望态度，实际佤邦锡矿或至7-8月才能明显在增加。当下冶炼厂加工费已经触及历史最低水平，冶炼开工率也正在降低，体现供给短时间矛盾难以缓解。我们倾向于认为目前还没到交易大幅下跌的时间点，但是价格跌落已经将部分远端弱预期计价在07合约价格中。方向上继续看空，但短期不建议继续追空，若反弹后再空或许更加具有安全边际。 ◆◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-05-302025-05-292025-05-282025-05-272025-05-262025-05-232025-05-222025-05-212025-05-202025-05-192025-05-162025-05-15 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3贴水78美元/吨，国内现货升水回升1250元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-04LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-0611-1811-301#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/6/232021/6/23 2022/6/23 2023/6/23 2024/6/23Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-05-302025-05-292025-05-282025-05-272025-05-262025-05-232025-05-222025-05-212025-05-202025-05-192025-05-162025-05-152025-05-14 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的back结构转为contango结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-0109-1309-2510-1410-2611-07Sn02-Sn0320172018201920202021202220232024202502-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-0109-1309-2510-1410-2611-0711-19Sn00-Sn01201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-05-302025-05-122025-05-092025-05-082025-05-072025-05-062025-04-302025-04-292025-04-282025-04-252025-04-24 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存去库1246吨，国内社会库存去库1261吨，期货库存去库144吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-1401-2602-10吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0308-1608-2809-1009-2210-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28SHFE锡锭库存总计2018201920202021202220232024202520152016201702000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存累库15吨，注销仓单比例上升至20.71%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-06LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为145448万元，近10日资金流向为流入方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-05-307711.003982.242025-05-29-342.18-598.702025-05-284577.89-970.752025-05-27-6031.80-3533.212025-05-26-1458.35-4781.742025-05-22-9777.39661.192025-05-2112314.502951.932025-05-20-553.52-3071.612025-05-19-2905.19-3767.002025-05-16-5756.10-1550.662025-05-15-2639.70-4518.902025-05-143743.842496.592025-05-13-14660.841041.472025-05-1218406.795646.232025-05-09-621.551946.542025-05-08-846.571564.252025-05-077307.74353.522025-05-06-1768.42-4292.552025-04-30-4478.77-5536.642025-04-29-6630.45-5396.912025-04-28-5500.68-3659.122025-04-25-4059.60-2274.572025-04-24-1417.08-2092.862025-04-23-1347.03-381.452025-04-22-3514.46101.342025-04-213717.143717.14沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-05-301872997834变化53494-18432025-05-2913380596772025-05-28137027222722025-05-2790692318952025-05-2681319416742025-05-2368064405112025-05-2281486512562025-05-21117971755032025-05-2071733487562025-05-19105116741910102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回升，持仓量小幅提升。 sn0114944247675101767963324830333190232022455235477201932564906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-05-30612.0000变化2025-05-29716.00002025-05-28729.00002025-05-27338.00002025-05-260.00002025-05-23337.00002025-05-22463.00002025-05-21370.00002025-05-20535.00002025-05-19389.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交小幅回升，持仓继续回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-19总持仓库存比20172018201920202023202420252015本周沪锡