尼康（7731 JP）：高层管理简报与中期业务计划进展

FY3/25EFY3/26E715.3731.9-71.10-722.62.428.0 FY3/27EFY3/28E787.2800.094.30117.10755.1788.640.045.5 Masahiro Nakanomyo * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6142 | mnakanomyo@jefferies.comHisako Furusumi * | Equity Associate+813 5251 6158 | hfurusumi@jefferies.com The Long View: NikonInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We expect volumes to continue declining in the digital camera marketafter the pandemic, though at a decelerating pace. Meanwhile, we thinkNikon will experience earnings improvement over the next 1-2 years, ledby a shift to high-end models and a broadening of the lineup in mirrorlessfull-size Z-mount interchangeable lens products, and rising sales.•Semiconductor shipments are steadily increasing, especially for newcustomers in Asia and Japan. Healthcare and component business OPreach ¥10bn level. FPD and Semiconductor business will likely be volatile,but mid-term plan is in progress.Base Case,¥1700, +22%•Nikon is revamping income in the imagingbusiness, bolstering the earnings structureofthe precision equipment business,anddevelopingfuture growth areas such asmaterialsprocessing.In imaging,Nikon’sshift to high-end models and cutbacks inbusiness operation costs have brought abouta transformation to profitability.•Price target: ¥1,700 (FY3/27E ROE: 5.0%; CoE:6.0%; P/B: 0.83x).Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Product Design & Lifecycle Management. 2) Supply Chain Management. 3)GHG Emissions.Company Targets:GHG Emission Scope 1/2 2025: 46% vs 2013, 2030: 71% vs 2013. Renewableenergy 2030: 30%.Qs to Mgmt:1) Nikon announced its medium-term management plan in April 2022. In terms ofsustainability, it has formulated KPIs in terms of the environment, society, and labor. Nikon hasformulated targets for fiscal 2025 toward carbon neutrality by fiscal 2050. What's the progress in thisregard? 2) Nikon is also strengthening corporate governance. In addition, it is working to ensure theindependence of outside directors and diversify the composition of the company. What's the progressin this regard?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥2800, +102%•Income recovery in imaging business is abovemarket expectations.•Increase in orders and sales from Intel.•ExpansionofEUV-relatedbusiness.•Yen depreciation.•Price target: ¥2,800 (ROE: 8.0%). Downside Scenario,¥1000, -28%•Shrinkage of the FPD lithography equipmentmarket.•Continuedupfrontspendingbusinessesand downward pressure onearnings.•Reacceleration of digital camera marketcontraction.•Price target: ¥1,000 (0.5x FY3/25E P/B).Catalysts•Intel’s investment trends•Continuation of earnings recovery in the digitalcamera business innew2 components Table 1 - Nikon Earnings Summary.FY3/21ActualFY3/22ActualFY3/23ActualFY3/24ActualFY3/25ActualFY3/26Co EJFE EFactSetFY3/27JFE EFactSetFY3/28JFE EFactSetFirst Quarter (Apr- Jun)1Q FY3/23Actual1Q FY3/24Actual1Q FY3/25Actual1Q FY3/26JFE EFactSetSecond Quarter (Jul-Sep)2Q FY3/23Actual2Q FY3/24Actual2Q FY3/25Actual2Q FY3/26JFE EFactSetFirst Half (Apr- Sep)1H FY3/23Actual1H FY3/24Actual1H FY3/25Actual1H FY3/26Co EJFE EFactSetThird Quarter (Oct- Dec)Q3 FY3/23ActualQ3 FY3/24ActualQ3 FY3/25ActualFourth Quarter (Jan-Mar)Q4 FY3/23ActualQ4 FY3/24ActualQ4 FY3/25ActualSecond Half (Oct-Mar)2H FY3/23Actual2H FY3/24Actual2H FY3/25Actual2H FY3/26Co ESource: Jefferies estimates, company data, FactSetNikon is capable of introducing products that are differentiated from those of competitors bycombining the digital lithography technologies it has thus far developed and the multi-projectionlenses for large panels that it has cultivated in FPD. When Nikon announced its mid-term plan inMay 2022, it cited digital lithography as a growth driver. Targets include high-speed prototypingand low-volume production of devices, and mass production of a wide variety of devices in smallquantities. In particular, Nikon is developing backend process equipment to meet rising demandin this area. In the semiconductor field, the company is also developing new ArF liquid immersionplatform equipment. This equipment is characterized by its compact size and compatibility withother companies’ ArF immersion equipment, and joint development with major semiconductormanufacturers is also progressing. Nikon believes that there are large unmet market needs.Metal additive processingNikon SLM Solution’s orders are steadily expanding. In particular, orders for large PBF (PowderBed Fusion) equipment, an area in which the company excels, are increasing significantly. Thereare no market share statistics, but Nikon achieved significant growth in FY3/25 compared toPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. its PBF rival EOS, and it is now in a position to challenge for the top market share for large-sized application