铀市场报告-美国政策波动

Daniel Roden * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2918 | droden@jefferies.comMitch Ryan * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2998 | mryan1@jefferies.comSource: WNA, UxC, Jefferies Summary of ChangesCompanyBoss Energy LtdBOE AUPreviousDeep Yellow LtdDYL AUPaladin Energy LtdPDN AUPreviousPaladin Energy LtdPDN CNPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUYAUD3.72UNPFAUD1.25HOLDAUD5.90HOLDC$5.34 Draft White House Executive Orders on Nuclear RegulationIn mid-May 2025, reports emerged of four draft executive orders being circulated within the WhiteHouse that would change U.S. nuclear policy and oversight.While the draft orders have yet to be formally issued, the drafts aim to accelerate nucleardeployment by bypassing or restructuring the independent Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC), and expansion of the role of other agencies such as the DOE. The draft outlines ambitiousgoals such as quadrupling U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2040. Below is an overview of the fourdraft executive orders:•NRC Overhaul:One draft order focuses on restructuring the NRC and overhauling itsregulatory processes. It would impose strict new deadlines and mandates on the NRC,such as requiring license application reviews to be completed within 18-months, revisingenvironmental review procedures, and even reconsidering the NRC’s radiation safetystandards. The order aims for a regulatory revision of the NRC within 18-months includingshrinking the NRC’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, and revising the "no safedose" assumption to a more lenient threshold. Many of these draft proposed reformsalready align with those in the ADVANCE Act of 2024, however would accelerate deadlinesand timeframe of implementation.•Fast-Tracking Nuclear Demonstrations:A second draft order would empower the DOE toimplement advanced reactor pilots and demonstration plants on federal sites. The draftoutlines that the DOE must approval and construct at least three demonstration reactors byJuly 4, 2026. While the timelines are optimistic at best, the intent is to bypass some existingdelays of the NRC licensing process by utilising DOE's authority on national labs and federallands, jump-starting advanced reactor deployment.•Nuclear for National Security:A third draft order frames nuclear energy expansion as anational security priority. It directs the Defence and Energy Secretaries to identify 9 militarybases within 60-days where advanced nuclear reactors can be rapidly installed with a focuson building resilient power supplies for defence. It also allows the Energy Secretary to “site,approve, and authorise” advanced nuclear reactors on DOE-owned sites to power energy-intensive infrastructure such as AI data centres, designating such projects as “defencecritical infrastructure” that can connect to the civilian grid. This designation is an attemptto circumvent the normal NRC licensing, by classifying the reactors as non-commercial,national security assets. The draft order also calls for DOE to release its stockpile of HALEUfor use by private advanced reactor developers to alleviate fuel supply constraints, and itwould create a new State Department envoy for nuclear energy exports to promote U.S.reactor technology abroad.•Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain Resilience:The fourth draft order is aimed at bolsteringdomestic nuclear supply chain and fuel cycle. This is achieved through supporting uraniumenrichment and nuclear fuel recycling R&D. It also proposes funding the restart of shutterednuclear power plants and improving the nuclear workforce “pipeline” in coordination withother federal departments. In essence, this order seeks to revive the front and backends of the nuclear fuel cycle in the U.S., including revisiting technologies like spent fuelreprocessing (which involves extracting plutonium or usable fuel from nuclear waste).It remains uncertain if or when these draft executive orders will be finalised or signed. Theyappear to be under active consideration by the current U.S. Administration as part of a broaderenergy agenda. We believe the drafts will likely influence the 2026 budget process, and furtherstimulate the development of advanced nuclear reactor and SMRs.Please see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Proposed Changes to Nuclear Production Tax Credits (45C/45U)On May 12, 2025, the House Ways and Means Committee released a draft tax bill that seeks toextend the 2017 tax cuts and pay for them by rolling back many of the clean energy tax creditsfrom 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act. The proposal targets a wide array of clean energy incentives,notably the production tax credit for nuclear power.Under the IRA, existing nuclear power plants were given a “Zero