史密斯集团（SMIN LN）：买入评级，第三季度有机增长10.6%显示指导保守

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(GBPp)2,620SHARE PRICE(GBPp)2,054(as of19 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(GBPm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(GBPp)Year to07/2024aHSBC EPS105.10HSBC EPS (prev)105.10Change (%)Consensus EPS104.48PE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(GBPp)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesStephan Klepp*, CFAUK Industrials | UK MidCap Equity AnalystHSBC Bank plcstephan.klepp@hsbc.com+44 20 7718 9503Matthew Lloyd*Head of UK MidCap Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plcmatthew.lloyd@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6799* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMachineryUnited Kingdom05/24Target price: 2620 6,8549,1580.015.82.69.915.811/24 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(GBPp)2,500UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+27.6%Free floatBBG38RIC07/2025e119.65118.83118.17High: 2116 Low: 1522 Current: 2054 100%SMIN LNSMIN.L07/2026e07/2027e138.70149.36137.83148.420.70.60.6131.41143.8317.214.813.82.32.42.511.39.88.818.821.721.513002050280005/25 2Financial statementsYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026eProfit & loss summary(GBPm)Revenue3,1323,3493,568EBITDA611667744Depreciation & amortisation-85-87-96Operating profit/EBIT526580648Net interest-38-35-36PBT372406460HSBC PBT488545612Taxation-121-142-161Net profit250263298HSBC netprofit365405452Cash flow summary(GBPm)Cash flow from operations418407450Capex-86-103-99Cash flow from investment39-230-104Dividends-147-146-151Change in net debt-17430032FCF equity286266308Balance sheet summary(GBPm)Intangible fixed assets1,5211,4741,427Tangible fixed assets755927958Current assets1,9561,6791,716Cash & others45913794Total assets4,2324,0794,101Operatingliabilities1,4441,4401,456Gross debt536536536Net debt213513545Shareholders' funds2,2302,0822,087Invested capital2,3292,5022,551Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue3.16.96.6EBITDA4.69.211.5Operating profit5.010.211.8PBT3.39.213.4HSBC EPS8.413.815.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.31.41.4ROIC14.215.616.7ROE15.818.821.7ROA5.86.47.3EBITDA margin19.519.920.9Operating profit margin16.817.318.2EBITDA/net interest (x)16.119.220.8Net debt/equity9.524.425.8Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.30.80.7CF fromoperations/net debt196.279.382.5Per share data(GBPp)EPS Rep (diluted)71.9977.6491.51HSBC EPS (diluted)105.10119.65138.70DPS43.7546.4048.70Book value646.19631.87652.81Financials & valuation:Smiths Group Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 19 May 2025 Smiths Group–Valuation and risksValuationSmithsGroupSMIN LNCurrent price:2,054pTargetprice:2,620pUp/downside:+27.6%Our blended valuationapproach leads to our target price of 2,620p (previously2,500p). Even though current eventsaround strategic divestmentsmight favour asum-of-the-parts valuation, we continue to use a 50/50blend of the fair valuesfrom DCF methodology (2,440punchanged) and a sum-of-the-parts valuationapproach (2,790p,previously 2,540p).SOTP:We employ a sum-of-the-parts approach due to Smiths’ four distinctdivisions John Crane, Detection, Flex-Tek, and Interconnect.◆ForJohn Crane, we assign a target FY26e EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x(previously 12.5x).◆ForFlex-Tek, we assign a target FY26e EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.0x(previously 14.0x).◆ForSmiths Detection, we assign a target FY26e EV/EBITDA multiple of10.0x(previously9.0x).◆ForInterconnect, we use a target FY26e EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x(previously 11.0x).◆ForHQ, we apply a target FY26e EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x (unchanged).Due to the c20% increase in peer multiples, our SOTP methodology derives avalue of 2,790p (previously 2,540p).DCF:In our DCF analysis, we assume a WACC of8.1% (unchanged), based ona cost of equity of 8.3% (unchanged); with a risk-free rate of 3.75% (unchanged),implied beta of 1.0 (unchanged), and equity risk premium of 4.5% (unchanged);and a post-tax cost of debt of 6.2% (unchanged). The DCF continues to use thecurrent company structure and therefore might underestimate the long-term valuegeneration of new Smiths Group. DCF yields a fair value of 2,440p (unchanged).Our estimate changes in this note is veryminimal and hence did not impact thefair value of the DCF.Target price and rating:We calculate a TP of 2,620p (previously 2,500p). With27.6% implied upside, we rate the stock Buy.We think thatSmiths Group’salready attractive investment case has gained instrength and appeal (from the recent announcement of the new group structure).The underlying business has been strong andhasprogressed for nearly threeyears, short-term earnings upside is still highly likely aftertwo guidance increasesfor FY2026. Now, more share buybacks should support the share price and theexecution of the separation should unmask the so far not reflected value ofInterconnect and Detection. This in turn,could add more share buybacks (or add-on acquisitions) into the mix of Smiths’ investmen