BJ批发俱乐部（BJ）：第一季度业绩稳健，财年指引不变

3.883.88 2024A2025E20,502.021,773.020,502.021,690.04.054.304.054.24 2026E23,465.523,183.04.794.69 Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comMantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.comCarlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.comTy-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.com What We DIDN'T LIKE in the Quarter(1) SG&A Delevered in Q1.The SG&A rate was up 10bps Y-Y, primarily due to increasedinvestments and higher D&A from accelerating club openings. Looking ahead, we expect BJ'swill maintain its price leadership while investing in wages and technology, which could weigh onprofitability.What We See Ahead(1) Value Wins in the Current Environment, and BJ's Is Value.Given macro uncertainty, inflationpressuring consumers, and a consumer focus on value, we believe BJ's remains well-positionedfor profitable growth and share gains.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: BJ's Wholesale ClubInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We believe BJ's TAM is expansive, given the ability to more predictablyand profitably grow units. Over time, BJ's can reach 350+ stores, we think,implying +MSD% annual sq ft growth.•Continued private-label expansion should underpin profitable growth, whiledigital initiatives are likely to attract new, younger customers.•With a meaningful price gap to mass retail and grocery, and prices in linewith other club retailers, BJ's looks well positioned to gain share.Base Case,$135, +15%•L-MSD% comp-store sales growth and M-HSD% MFI growth annually.•Slight margin compression in F'25 and thenreturn to expansion in F'26.•L-MSD% unit growth annually.•Our $135 PT is based on F'26E EPS of $4.79;~28x P/E, ~14x EV/EBITDASustainability MattersTop material issue(s): 1) Energy Management:BJ’s Wholesale Club is committed to implementingenergy efficiency improvements in all new club locations. The company also uses building managementsystems to optimize energy usage in new and existing clubs.Company Target(s): 1)All new BJ’s club locations and BJ’s gas stations as of 2016 are built with 100%LED lighting for both interior and exterior lighting packages2)All existing and new clubs have smarttechnology for refrigeration, lighting and HVAC energy management and this technology allows thecompany to substantially reduce its energy consumption3)All roof replacements and new club roofingare designed with highly reflective “cool roofs,” which stay cooler than traditional roofs to reduce AC loadsQs to mgmt: 1)What cost-savings do you predict by improving energy efficiencies?2)What are yourcurrent priorities when it comes to your energy management initiatives?Multiline and Specialty Retailers & Distributors ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$160, +36%•Recent tailwinds persist and inflation is passedthrough, driving upside to comps.•More members continue to join, driving higherMFI growth and unit growth shows visibility toaccelerate.•Gross margin expands on PL trade-down,general merchandise expansion, and inflationpass-through.•SG&A levers on sales and wage inflationmitigation.•Our $160 Upside PT is based on F'26E EPS of$5.27, ~30x P/E Downside Scenario,$95, -19%•Comps decline on rapid shift to FAFH andmembership declines.•Membership fee income growth declines onmass attrition as members no longer see valuein BJ assortment.•Weaker-than-expected GM%due to risingfuelprices,price investments,and generalmerchandise disruption from supply chain.•SG&A delevers on soft sales and further wageinvestments.•Our $95 Downside PT is based on F'26E EPS of$4.55; ~21x P/ECatalysts•Step function changes on comps in keycategories,including expansion in generalmerchandise•Accelerated unit growth announcements•Improvement in membership renewal rates•Announcements on capital allocation•Consumer spending shift to consumablesdrives further share gains in grocery 3 Chart 1 - BJ Income Statement ($ millions, except per share data).---------------------------------Q1A%%%D&A%%%%EBT%%%%D&AEBTD&AEBTSource: Company Data, Jefferies EstimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionBJ's Wholesale ClubBJ's Wholesale operates 247 warehouse clubs within the Eastern United States. Approximately 2/3 of these clubs also operate gas stations as well.As of F'23, grocery accounts for ~86% of BJ's total sales. Grocery categories include