格伦马克制药（GNP IN）：买入：重新评级的逻辑依然成立

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(INR)PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)1720.001765.00SHARE PRICE(INR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE1390.10+23.7%(as of26 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)392,287Free floatMarket cap(USDm)4,604BBG3m ADTV (USDm)11RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025a03/2026eHSBC EPS46.1959.45HSBC EPS (prev)48.9659.47Change (%)-5.7Consensus EPS49.6562.13PE (x)30.1Dividend yield (%)0.5EV/EBITDA (x)16.8ROE (%)15.652-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesDamayanti Kerai*Analyst, India HealthcareHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimiteddamayantikerai@hsbc.co.in+91 88 7933 5196Shubhangi Gupta*, Ph.D.Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143Gaurang Sakare*Associate, India HealthcareHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)PrivateLimitedgaurang.sakare@hsbc.co.in+91 77 1883 6255* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesPharmaceuticalsIndia05/2411/24Target price: 1720.00High: 1818.15 Low: 1119.45 Current: 1390.10 ◆◆◆ 53%GNP INGLEN.BO03/2027e03/2028e74.6987.3076.760.0-2.775.7323.418.615.90.60.813.911.117.618.918.81000.001500.002000.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue133,217149,011167,742187,972EBITDA23,51428,00734,70440,276Depreciation & amortisation-4,860-5,153-5,973-6,737Operating profit/EBIT18,65422,85428,73133,539Net interest-2,071-2,249-2,101-2,227PBT13,99221,34927,73032,412HSBC PBT13,99221,34927,73032,412Taxation-3,521-4,753-6,655-7,779Net profit10,47116,59521,07424,633HSBC net profit13,03216,77521,07424,633Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations-7,36515,69416,54420,589Capex-7,496-9,000-12,000-15,000Cash flow from investment21-9,000-12,000-15,000Dividends-704-2,434-3,058-3,574Change in net debt11,578-5,004-2,586-3,115FCF equity-14,8606,6944,5445,589Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixedassets14,60314,60314,60314,603Tangible fixed assets38,61442,46148,48856,751Current assets92,955107,447120,550136,442Cash & others17,05223,45627,44231,957Total assets160,496178,836197,965222,120Operating liabilities43,51646,29546,00747,703Gross debt21,94223,34224,74226,142Net debt4,890-114-2,700-5,815Shareholders' funds88,494102,655120,672141,730Invested capital85,60394,760110,192128,136Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue12.811.912.612.1EBITDA96.719.123.916.1Operating profit204.122.525.716.7PBT52.629.916.9HSBC EPS28.725.616.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.91.71.61.6ROIC20.520.522.022.0ROE15.617.618.918.8ROA7.910.812.012.5EBITDA margin17.718.820.721.4Operating profit margin14.015.317.117.8EBITDA/net interest (x)11.412.516.518.1Net debt/equity5.5-0.1-2.2-4.1Netdebt/EBITDA (x)0.2-0.0-0.1-0.1CF from operations/net debtPer share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)37.1158.8174.6987.30HSBC EPS (diluted)46.1959.4574.6987.30DPS6.708.6310.8412.67Book value313.63363.82427.67502.30Valuation dataYear toEV/salesEV/EBITDAEV/ICPE*PBFCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)ESGmetricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data, HSBC*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(INR)Target price(INR)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)Price relativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 26 May 2025190.00690.001190.001690.00Financials & valuation:Glenmark Pharmaceuticals 4QFY25earningscall takeawaysIndia segment◆India segment sales at INR9.4bn (29% of 4Q sales) were flat y-o-yanddown 11.3% q-o-q onlower uptake for acute therapies, c10% y-o-y decline in anti-diabetic sales anddiscontinuationof select low-margin products.◆The companysaw notable pressure initsanti-diabetic portfolio (c8% of India segmentrevenue) in recent quarters. The companyattributedthedecline in remogliflozin andteneligliptin sales (c60% of its anti-diabetic sales) after entry of generics for competing brands(dapagliflozin, sitagliptin) as the key reason for fall in its anti-diabetic sales.◆Glenmark maintainedastrong market position in the India Pharma market (IPM) in derma,respiratory and cardiac.◆The company’snew launches indiabetes (Lirafit/liralutide, sitagliptin and empagliflozin),dermatology (abrocitinib) and oncology (tislelizumab, and Zanubrutinib) to led recovery for theIndia segment.◆Glenmarkis currently facing some supply issues for liraglutide (sourced from a CMO partner)and expects supplies to normalize shortly.◆Besides Lirafit,Glenmarkplans to launch other GLP-1 agonists.◆Glenmark currently hasc5,500medical representatives (MRs) in its India sales teamanditdoesn