一个大型帐篷：新民主党（NDP）将重新掌权，但其新领导层提供了一个全新的开始，一个基础广泛的政治联盟应该在经济政策方面提供足够的制衡。我们维持增持评级，并建议买入SURINM33s和SURINM50s。

A big tent The NDP is set to return to power, but its new leadershipoffersa fresh start and a broad-based political coalitionshould providesufficientchecks and balances in economicpolicy. We remain Overweight and recommend buyingSURINM33s and SURINM50s. Jason Keene+1 212 526 7275jason.keene@barclays.comBCI, US Summary Despite only winning 18 of 51 seats in the National Assembly, the NDP quickly closed ranks withSuriname’s smaller parties to form a broad-based political coalition. We do not expect the newgovernment to formally engage with the IMF on a successor program, but we view the decision todelegate central bank leadership to the NPS as a positive market signal. We remain Overweightand recommend buying SURINM 7.95% 2033s and SURINM 9% 2050s. General elections On Sunday, May 25, Suriname held general elections to elect the 51 members of the NationalAssembly, who will in turn nominate a president and form a government. While there is still arecount taking place in one of the country's ten electoral districts,1the elections were largelypeaceful, and there do not appear to be any credible allegations of fraud or irregularities.2Thepreliminary results showed a one-seat advantage for the National Democratic Party,or NDP, over the incumbentVooruitstrevende Hervomings Partij,3or VHP (Figure 1 and Figure 2). The NDP only picked up two additional seats from its 2020 result and fell short of both itselectoral performance in both 2010 and 2015 (Figure 3). However, all of the smaller parties,which had collectively won 16 seats, quickly rallied behind the NDP and its presidentialcandidate, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons.4With 34 seats, the new coalition has the requisite two-thirds majority to select a president and avoid a lengthier electoral process through the UnitedPeople's Assembly, orVerenigde Volksvergadering(VVV). Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 6. The NDP's historical economic track record has been a source of market anxiety, and we do notexpect the new government to formally engage with the IMF on a successor program. While thismay initially be taken negatively by market participants and rating agencies,5we think thata Simons administration will have ample financing options to bridge the gap to first oilproduction in 2028 (Suriname Sovereign Strategy: Ask me tomorrow but not today, 21 April2025). The NDP would lead the Ministry of Finance and Planning, but importantly, the NationalParty of Suriname (NPS) is to appoint the Head of the Centrale Bank van Suriname,or CBvS (Figure 4). We see additional space for fiscal expansion in the years leading to first oil,but significant credit risks could materialize if this is financed domestically through the centralbank and leads to a depletion of the country's hard-fought foreign exchangebuffers.The CBvSwas not politically insulated in 2020 under former President Dési Bouterse's NDP,6so we viewthe decision to delegate responsibility to the NPS as a positive market signal. Sovereign Credit Strategy We remain Overweight:The NDP is set to return to power, but its new leadershipoffersa freshstart and a broad-based political coalition should providesufficientchecks and balances ineconomic policy. We remain Overweight and recommend buying SURINM33s andSURINM50s. TotalEnergies' final investment decision on Block 58 represents a transformationalmilestone in the country's economic development, likely neutralizing any potential fiscalslippage or economic mismanagement between now and first oil in 2028. Buy SURINM 7.95% 2033s:While SURINM 7.95% 2033s have traded up approximately 5-6ptsfrom their post-"Liberation Day" lows and are approaching the top-end of their one-year range(Figure 5), the bonds still screen as relatively attractive when mapped against a selection ofshorter-duration HY peers (Figure 6 and Figure 7). The bonds are trading several points belowpar, but we think that a Simons administration has financial incentives to call these bonds atpar during 2025 and that recent price action provides flexibility in pursuing a refinancing. FIGURE 5. SURINM 7.95% 2033s, price Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Buy SURINM 9% 2050s:Since TotalEnergies announced FID in October 2024 (Suriname Block58: Start your engines, 2 October 2024), SURINM 9% 2050s have traded at a discount to call priceof $6-11 (Figure 10 and Figure 11). The discount has recently dropped below this range, but wecontinue to see value in buying a bond collateralized by oil royalty payments