锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures锡：基本面强现实弱预期强弱分析：中性价格区间：254000-273000元/吨周度锡价保持震荡格局，高点小幅抬升。基本面上锡并未有显著改变，但是5、6月矿端紧俏的现状仍未改变，周度锡矿加工费继续回落，云南40%加工费回落至12000元/吨，60%加工费回落至8000元/吨。从进口数据中有明显体现，4月国内锡矿进口9861吨，累计同比减少47%，缅甸进口2377吨，仍为低位。同时，矿端紧俏传导到锡锭生产，4月月度产量明显下滑至15200吨，云南江西两省合计开工也持续走低至56.44%。然而4月需求数据亦有所走弱，3c消费环比大幅回落且处于历年偏低位置，尽管家电消费历史同期偏高，但4月环比亦表现不佳。供需双弱的情形下供给侧矛盾难以单独推升锡价，致使价格仅呈现窄幅震荡。周度社会库存重新小幅累库，全球库存累库库304吨，国内社会库存累库374吨。且价差上国内升水收窄，lme0-3走阔。当下锡基本面维持强现实弱预期格局，锡价远月基本面偏弱，back结构亦凸显价格预期。目前锡适合以窄幅区间震荡思路为主，临近年中建议关注锡价基于宏观面需求走弱、基本面供给释放的逻辑引至的逢高做空机会。 ◆◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-05-232025-05-222025-05-212025-05-202025-05-192025-05-162025-05-152025-05-142025-05-132025-05-122025-05-092025-05-08 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3贴水1135美元/吨，国内现货升水回落至700元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-0611-1811-3012-1212-241#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/6/172021/6/17 2022/6/17 2023/6/17 2024/6/17Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-05-232025-05-222025-05-212025-05-202025-05-192025-05-162025-05-152025-05-142025-05-132025-05-122025-05-092025-05-082025-05-07 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的contango转为back结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-0109-1309-25Sn02-Sn0320172018201920202021202220232024202502-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-0109-1309-2510-14Sn00-Sn01201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-05-232025-04-302025-04-292025-04-282025-04-252025-04-242025-04-232025-04-222025-04-212025-04-182025-04-17 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存累库304吨，国内社会库存累库374吨，期货库存去库43吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-14吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0206-1406-2607-0907-2208-0408-1708-3009-1109-2310-1310-2611-0811-2012-0312-1612-29SHFE锡锭库存总计20182019202020212022202320242025201520162017100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存去库70吨，注销仓单比例上升至14.26%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-06LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为139082万元，近10日资金流向为流出方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-05-23-3109.47-190.792025-05-22-9777.39661.192025-05-2112314.502951.932025-05-20-553.52-3071.612025-05-19-2905.19-3767.002025-05-15-2639.70-4518.902025-05-143743.842496.592025-05-13-14660.841041.472025-05-1218406.795646.232025-05-09-621.551946.542025-05-08-846.571564.252025-05-077307.74353.522025-05-06-1768.42-4292.552025-04-30-4478.77-5536.642025-04-29-6630.45-5396.912025-04-28-5500.68-3659.122025-04-25-4059.60-2274.572025-04-24-1417.08-2092.862025-04-23-1347.03-381.452025-04-22-3514.461083.402025-04-213717.141458.832025-04-183047.52-958.892025-04-17-2388.18-3655.382025-04-16-3536.03-3135.582025-04-15-5041.92-2935.362025-04-14-828.79-828.79沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-05-236806440511变化-13422-107452025-05-2281486512562025-05-21117971755032025-05-2071733487562025-05-19105116741912025-05-1683768607282025-05-151051791022025-05-14120951862025-05-131335011522025-05-122010032500102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回落，持仓量小幅提升。 sn0123202-1350245523547720193256491896172966861609702015228406-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-05-23337.0000变化2025-05-22463.00002025-05-21370.00002025-05-20535.00002025-05-19389.00002025-05-16339.00002025-05-15494.00002025-05-14515.00002025-05-13530.00002025-05-12809.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交持续较前期高点大幅回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-26