美洲外汇早报

CurrenciesGlobal Americas FX Morning Bullets 20 May2025 ◆The DXY USD index seems magnetically attracted to 100◆AUD underperforms post-RBA but we see upside ahead◆CAD steady ahead of today’s CPI data; steady core expected Daragh MaherHead of Digital Assets Research, Sr FX StrategistHSBC Bank plcdaragh.maher@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 8888 Lenny JinGlobal FX StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedlenny.jin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6549 Daily commentaries might note that the USD is weaker this morning, but thebigger picture is that the USD is not doing a great deal. The DXY index is driftingback towards 100, the level where it was at the start of the month, and also on April11 after it began to stabilise in the wake of Liberation Day volatility. It has beenoscillating around the 100 level +-2% since then, and this level seems to be the newcentre of gravity for the currency. The challenge to finding a new trend is that nothingnew ishappening. US trade policy is paused as the administration tries to hammerout some trade deals. Monetary policy is similarly paused as the Fed tries to gaugethe economic impact of those (as yet) uncertain tariff levels.There is no shortage ofnoise, with multiple Fed speakers yesterday and today. The gathering of G7 financeministers in Canada offers more scope for headlines, but little of it offers anythingnew, meaning the 100-level on the DXY is likely to remain a magnet for now. Clyde WardleSenior EM FX StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.clyde.wardle@us.hsbc.com+1 646 610 3260 AUD-USD is the overnight underperformer following the RBA’s dovish 25bp rate cut. There were broad-based negative revisions to growthforecasts, conditionedon two more cuts in 2025. RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed that the boarddiscussed a possible 50bp cut, which sent the AUD lower. Nevertheless, we continueto see scope for a stronger AUD for several reasons:(i) the governmenthas ampleroom and willingness to deliver fiscal support if domestic conditions warrant; (ii)thecurrent de-escalation in trade tensions should support the region’s growth outlookand support risk appetite; (iii)as hedging costs have come down for Australianinvestors, the superannuation funds could increase their FX hedging ratios oninternational equity holdings; (iv)the CFTC positioning short positions are still sizableand AUD continues to screens cheap as per our models. The risk-reward favors AUDupside. (see FX Snap,AUD: A dent, but not an end,20 May 2025). USD-CAD remains steady ahead of today’s Canadian CPI release.The April CPIreport is likely to showa marked deceleration in headline inflation, with theconsensus primed for a-0.2% MoM drop. This would slow the YoY rate to 1.6% from2.3% previously.But the consensus is widely distributed, ranging from 1.5% to 2.4%.Perhaps the higher estimates did not take account of the removal of the ConsumerCarbon Tax in April 2025, which led to a big drop in energy prices on the month.Perhaps the greater focus, consequently, will be on the core measures which areexpected to hold steady at 2.8%-2.9%, still above the BoC’s 2% inflation target.Thelast BoC meeting saw ratesheldat 2.75%,withtariff uncertaintycitedas the reasonfor the pause. The next meeting will be held on 4 June, and markets have a 70%likelihood of a cut priced in. That might be ambitious given the still uncertain path fortariffs. Still, although recent moves in USD-CAD have not been tracking theratedifferentials,they do point to a movehigher in USD-CADwere they to get traction. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com A prime example of markets (and journalists) trying to make something out of nothingcentres on JPY discussions at the G7 finance ministers’meetings. Both Bloomberg andReuters are focusing on the possibility of Japan’s Finance Minister Kato meeting with USTreasury Secretary Bessent on the fringes of this gather. Kato has indicated that currencies arelikely to be one of the topics of discussion. Thereports have tried to spin this into a possibleprecursor to some kind of deal to strengthen the JPY as part of a trade deal with the US.Nothing the finance minister has said would support this thesis. Instead, Kato has stressed thatJapan willrepeat their stance from previous conversations, namely that excessive FX volatility isundesirable, and that markets should set the FX rate.There has been no indication from the USside of any pressure for FX concessions by Japan. In fact, the more interesting aspect for theJPY overnight was the soft JGB auctions, with 30Y yields moving to a record high, and weakdemand for the 20Y issue. Rate differentials are not in vogue for the FX market at the moment,but they still be