欧洲_信用_阿尔法_关税_地板

European Credit Alpha Tarifffloor We discuss the Greenium across global credit, the potentialfor 'repatriation flows' away from the US, our revised HY andleveraged loan supply forecast and TenneT hybrids. Soren Willemann+44 (0) 20 7773 9983soren.willemann@barclays.comBarclays, UK We are pleased to invite you to our flagship Barclays European Investment Grade CreditConference in London on Thursday, 26 June 2025. The conference will have two parallel tracks ofdiscussions and fireside chats on pivotal market topics with issuers and investors. Click here toregister. Zoso Davies+44 (0) 20 7773 5815zoso.davies@barclays.comBarclays, UK Franck Bataille+33 (0) 14458 3221franck.bataille@barclays.comBBI, Paris European Overview Tarifffloor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Markets remained quiet amid seasonal holidays and economic data obscured by front-loading,but we fear markets – while awaitingtariffnegotiation results – are being complacent about thedamage already being done bytariff-inducedmacro uncertainty. Melissa McCallum, CFA+ 44 (0) 20 7773 3573melissa.mccallum@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Focus Srijan Karn+91 (0) 22 6175 3592srijan.karn@barclays.comBarclays, UK Greenium rises, euro and dollar bonds diverge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 The corporate green bond premium has risen slightly YTD to 2bp, with the euro greenium atc.3bp; there is no longer evidence of a dollar greenium. A premium also emerged for socialbonds, but other ESG labels have negligible premia. Khush Patel+44 (0) 20 7773 4647khush.patel@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Investment Grade Sell America: Not yet in credit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 We find little to no evidence of 'sell America' flows in global credit data. In our view, any suchnarrative would be slow to take hold, led by FX and interest rate concerns, and driven out of Asiawhere exposures to €-IG are low. In such a scenario, $-IG and US issuer underperformance islikely. Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 40 . FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 40 . European High Yield Supply revisit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24We examine the supply trends this year for HY and leveraged loans. For HY, we expect fewer refisand M&A supply, and reduce our forecast to €80bn gross/€30bn net. For loans, we expectgreater refis and similar M&As, and increase our forecast to €75bn gross, with net unchanged at€50bn. Hybrid Capital TenneT: an interesting case study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31TenneT has receivedsufficientconsent to move ahead with its group restructuring, with allsenior debt moving to Tennet Netherlands. At the same time, Tennet's hybrids have become aspecial situation and an interesting case study in terms of rating agencies methodologies andrelative value. European Credit – Appendices Fundamentals in focus and reporting calendar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34We highlight our reporting calendar of upcoming events. European Overview Tarifffloor Markets remained quiet amid seasonal holidays andeconomic data obscured by front-loading, but we fearmarkets – while awaitingtariffnegotiation results – are beingcomplacent about the damage already being done bytariff-inducedmacro uncertainty. Soren Willemann+44 (0) 20 7773 9983soren.willemann@barclays.comBarclays, UK Amid holidays in major parts of Europe and little tangible market-moving news, the post'Liberation Day' retracement has stalled, and since 25th April, both Main and €IG cash have seenaverage daily changes of just 1bp. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode in terms oftariffnegotiations, reflected in the stablemarket, but in this holding pattern, with short-term positive economic headlines largelyreflecting front-loading, we fear the market is being complacent about the d