固定收益每日市场更新

20May2025 CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 ThenewKORAIL4.37528tightened6bpsto+57fromROthis morning.STANLN/HSBCFloat31stightened1-2bps.CBAAU/WSTPT2stightened2-3bps.RAKUTN27-29s/8.125Perpwereup0.1-0.2pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk CDBALF:FVof thenewCDBALF30to be T+75 vs IPTofT+115.CDBALF/CDBLFD 26-27s were unchanged to4bps wider this morning. Seebelow. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Resilient data means no strong stimulus in near term.CMBI expects strong policy stimulus might be delayed to 4Q25 as the senseof urgency has diminished and measures to boost consumption and reduceovercapacity could serve as key bargaining chips for China in China-USnegotiations. See below. JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday, UST 10yr and 30yr closed 3bps wider subsequent to Moody’sdowngrade on the US rating to Aa1 from Aaa last Friday. Asia IGs were stablein credit spreads amid mixed flows. On IG primary, CDBALF announced themandate to issue fixed-rate bond and floating rate bonds (both of 5yr). Seecomments on FV below. KORAIL 4.375 28 priced a new 3yr bond at +63 (IPTat +90). The recent new HSBC Float 31s tightened 1bp while STANLN Float31s closed unchanged. In Chinese IGs, HAOHUA 28-30s widened 1-2bps,The long end of SINOPE/TENCNT 41-60s were 0.3-0.6pt higher (unchangedto 3bps tighter). In financials, KDB/KHFC/BCLMHK Float 27-30s widened 1-3ps. TYANLI/BBLTB/KRKPSC 29-36s 4bps wider. CATLIF/NSINTW 34sclosedunchangedto1bpwider.Seeourcommentson19May’25.FRESHK/BNKEA/DAHSIN 26-31s and CBAAU/WSTP 27-30s closed 1-4bpstighter. In AT1s, HSBC 6.95/INTEND 7.25 Perp were 0.2-0.3pt lower. Ininsurancehybrids,NIPLIF55s/KYOBOL 52s weredown0.2pt.InHK,NWDEVL Perps dropped another 1.0-6.2pts after moving down 1.8-7.5ptsover the last week. NWDEVL 27-31s declined 0.7-1.3pts after moving 0.8-2.5pts lower over the last week. In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26s rose0.6pt. However, VNKRLE 27-29s and LNGFOR 27-32s lowered 0.5-0.7pt.FTLNHD 25-26s were unchanged to 0.3pt lower. Elsewhere, RAKUTN 27-29s/8.125 Perp were down 0.1-0.4pt. See our comments on19 May ’25.VEDLN 28-33s were 0.2-0.7pt lower. ADTINs/ARENRJs/ADGREGs weredown 0.3-0.8pt. MEDCIJ 26-30s declined 0.2-0.6pt. VLLPM 27-29s weredown 0.1-0.6pt. In LGFVs,CPDEV 25-26s weredown 0.1-0.2pt.Therewere twowayinterests on USD names such as PUTSTA 7.4 27s/SICHUI 7 28s and onCNH names such as BNHAST 6.9 28s/HBGGDS 7.5 26s. In SOE perps,AVIILC 6.125 Perp was up 0.3pt. SPICPT 3.45 Perp was 0.1pt higher. MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.09%), Dow (+0.32%) and Nasdaq (+0.02%) were higher onMonday. The market sedimentwas weakened by the downgrade by Moody’s on the US to Aa1. Long-term UST yieldwas higher Monday,2/5/10/30 yieldat 3.97%/4.07%/4.46%/4.92%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 CDBALF: FV of the new CDBALF 30 to be T+75 vs IPT of T+115 CDB Aviation (A2/A/A) proposes to issue 5yr senior bond (A2/-/A). We consider the FV of new CDBALF 30 tobe T+75 vs. IPT of T+115, in view of its own senior bond CDBALF 3.5 10/24/27 (A2/-/A, T+73bps/YTM of4.71%), also compared to its peer BOCAVI 3.5 09/18/27 (-/A-/A-, T+69/YTM of 4.75%) and BOCAVI 5.2501/14/30 (-/A-/A-, T+72/YTM of 4.77%). The new bond will be issued by CDBL Funding I (issuer), guaranteed by its parent CDB Aviation. ChinaDevelopment Bank Financial Leasing (CDB Leasing, A1/A/A) provides keepwell and asset purchase deed.CDB Leasing is a 64.4% owned-subsidiary of China Development Bank (CDB, A1/A/A+) which is 100% ownedby the Chinese government. CoC put allows bondholders to require the issuer to redeem all of the bonds at101 of the principal amount. CoC is defined as (i) CDB ceases to directly or indirectly control CDB Leasing, (ii)CDB Leasing ceases to directly or indirectly control CDB Aviation, (iii) the issuer ceases to be directly orindirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of CDB Aviation, or (iv) the issuer ceases to be a directly or indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of CDB Leasing. Proceeds of the new bond will be used for working capital and other generalcorporate purposes. We understand that the keepwell and asset purchase deed are to commit CDB Leasing to ensure the issuerand CDB Aviation to obtain sufficient funds before the due date of payment obligations, and to remain solventand a going concern at all time. However,these are not guarantee of the payment obligations and may not giverise to a debt claim in the event of any insolvency proceedings in relation to the CDB Leasing. Performance byCDB Leasing of its obligations under the keepwell and asset purchase deed issubject to the approvals of theChinese authorities. If CDB Leasing fails to obtain the required consents or approvals after using its reasonableefforts, CDB Leasing may be relieved of its obligations under the keepwell and asset purchase deed. When atriggering event occurs, CDB Leasing has an obligation to acquire the aircraft an