经济状况和公共财政：月报（2025年4月）

Table of ContentCommentaries: Economic conditions and Public financesHousehold wealth and finances in Germany: Results of the 2023household wealth survey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Wealth distribution in 2023 compared with previous yearsThe PHF study’s definition of wealthCounting statutory pension entitlements as an additional wealthcomponent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Methodology of the PHF study 2023Distributional wealth accounts for households in GermanyWealth mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562 The wealth of particular groups of households3 Structure of wealth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Inflation and wealth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 694 Saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715 Households’ debt situation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 736 Conclusion and outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Current opinions on the role of cash in German society1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 822 Debate surrounding cash. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 843 Opinion among the general public . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Payment behaviour in Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 934 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1065 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108The debt situation in the euro area private non-financial sector sincethe start of monetary policy tightening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1121 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1142 Balance sheet constraints and monetary policy transmission. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1163 Recent developments in the debt situation of the private non-financialsector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1204 Quantifying the risks of debt-induced balance sheet constraints. . . . . . . . . . 130Using local projections to measure non-linear effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1385 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 4Commentaries: Economicconditions and Publicfinances Commentaries: Economic conditions and Public financesDeutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report – April 20251 Economic conditions1.1 German economic activity slightly stabilised in the reporting period,but outlook significantly gloomierEconomic output in Germany is likely to have increased slightly in the first quarterof 2025, but could suffer a setback in the second quarter.In the first quarter of 2025,real gross domestic product)GDPment,following a decline in the previous quarter. This is suggested by the recentincrease in industrial and construction output. Service providers are also likely to haveexpanded their activity somewhat, possibly buoyed by slightly higher private consump-tion. Real sales in the retail trade, for instance, continued to rise in January and Febru-ary. However, the underlying cyclical trend remains weak overall. While demand in theconstruction industry has already recovered from a very depressed level, domestic andforeign demand for German industrial products has remained sluggish. Low capacityutilisation in industry is weighing on firms’ propensity to invest. The labour market