贝壳（BEKE）：2025年第一季度业绩超预期，但温和的业绩指引引发担忧。

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) 1Q25results beat,but moderate outlookguidance raised concerns BEKE's 1Q25 results beat expectations,butoutlook guidance raised concerns.1Q25revenue rose 42% YoY to RMB 23.3bn (+4%/+3% aboveBloombergconsensus/CMBIestimates),mainlydriven by new home (+64% YoY) andemergingbiz(+46% YoY). Non-GAAP net profitreached RMB 1.4bnin thequarter(flat YoY), beatingBloomberg/CMBI estimates by22%/30%.However,its2Q25/FY25 guidance implies FY25non-GAAPNP of ~RMB 7.3bn, well belowmarket expectations of RMB 8bn,asthecompanycushions for incrementalimpacts fromwhether the property policy supportwill matchwithlast year’sstrength and effectiveness.Wemaintain our view of“cautious in the short termandpositive in the long term” forBEKE, cutting our SOTP-based TPby 6.5% toUS$24.6to reflect lower earnings forecasts. TheTP impliesUS$25.4for BeikeCorebizand US$0.9 for Shengdu, translating to 28.5x 2025E PE (non-GAAP).Maintain BUY. Target PriceUS$24.60(Previous TPUS$26.30)Up/Downside21.6%Current PriceUS$20.23 China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Miao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk 1Q25 earnings beat withmixedcore bizperformance.Beike’s EHT/NHTGTV rose 28%/53% YoY, faroutperformingthe market’s 16%/0%.Revenuefrom thesegmentwasup 20%/64%,reflecting higher taker rate for newhome but a decline in existing home biz due to rising contribution from non-Lianjiastorewithalower take rate.Contribution margins(CM)improved fornew home biz but dropped for existing home biz, astheagent number andsalary increases drove cost upbyRMB 600mn YoY.Managementsignalledforcontinuouscostoptimizationin the future.Non-GAAP NP came in atRMB 1.4bn, beating estimates,althoughNP margindeclined to 6.0%from8.5% in1Q24due to the aforementioned margin pressure on existing homebiz alongside the exit of high-margin biz like corporation with banks, whichalso weighed on profitability. Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Majoannama@cmbi.com.hk Conservative guidance falls short of market expectations.The companyguides 2Q25 revenue at ~RMB 26 bn (+12% YoY)withnon-GAAPOPmargin at 6.5%, implying a 40% YoY drop in non-GAAPOP.Notably, its firstfull-year guidance projects non-GAAPOP margin of FY25 at 6.8%. Thislikelymatcheswiththe non-GAAP NP margin, translating to ~RMB 7.3 bnnon-GAAPNP, nearlyflat vs. FY24andwell below prior market forecast ofRMB 8 bn,primarilydrivenby1) conservative GTV and existing home takerate assumptions, and 2)potentiallysustainedmarginpressure fromrise inemployeecompensation. Wethinkthecautiousguidancereflectsthecompany’s wait-and-see stance onthe market,asit isunclearwhetherthestrong policy support and visible effects since 2Q24will bein place againinFY25.Homerenovationbizachieves breakthrough.The segment's CM hit an all-timehighof32.6% in1Q25,withthesegmentachieving monthlybreakeveninApril,drivenbyprocurementoptimizationwhichliftedcentralized purchasing share from 24% in prior year to 65%, reducing rawmaterial pricesby ~20% according tothemanagement. The companyexpects to sustain breakeven in 2Q,consideringthe long holiday impacts in2H25,andFY25 lossmaynarrowsignificantlywithprofitability in FY26.Earnings Summary Source: FactSet Results comparison and changes in forecast Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related tothe specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in ortraded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2)willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15%over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected tooutperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperformthe relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 4