Circle (CRCL.N)：2025Q2 业绩超预期，全年指引乐观；大规模配售引发市场担忧

事件：当地时间周二（8月12日）盘前，Circle公布2025年第二季度财报，业绩超出市场预期，全年指引亦显乐观。受此提振，公司股价当日收涨1.3%；然而，其随后宣布的大规模股票配售计划引发股价震荡，盘后一度急跌超6%，最终于周三（8月13日）收跌6.15%。 2025Q2业绩超市场预期 ➢收入强劲增长。总收入达6.58亿美元，同比增长53%，超出市场预期的6.47亿美元，主要受益于USDC流通量大幅攀升。 ➢净亏损主因一次性费用。净亏损4.82亿美元，主要受IPO相关的非现金费用（5.91亿美元）影响，其中包含4.24亿美元股权激励费用。 ➢核心盈利能力稳健。调整后EBITDA同比增长52%至1.26亿美元，高于市场预期的1.21亿美元。 2025Q2储备收入增长强劲，但利率下行周期带来潜在压力 数据日期：2025年8月13日资料来源：彭博，国信证券（香港）财富研究部整理 核心收入来源储备收入达6.34亿美元，同比增长50%。增长主要源于USDC平均流通量同比激增86%，但部分被储备回报率下降103个基点（至4.1%）所抵消。 ➢当前4.1%的储备回报率仍属健康水平，然而投资者需关注利率下行周期对储备收入的潜在压力。 USDC扩张势头迅猛 ➢流通量激增。2025Q2末USDC流通量达613亿美元，同比大增90%；截至8月10日进一步增至652亿美元。 ➢用户基础扩大。有意义钱包数量同比增长68%至570万个。 ➢市场份额持续提升。2025Q2末，Circle稳定币市场份额达28%，同比提升595个基点。 资料来源：彭博，国信证券（香港）财富研究部整理 JING YI, CFASFC CE No.：BRQ314+852 2899 6747jessiejing@guosen.com.cn 2025全年指引整体乐观 ➢长期增长信心。管理层预计USDC流通量长期年复合增长率(CAGR)为40%，高于市场对未来三年年增长率30%的一致预期。 ➢RLDC利润率凸显分销成本压力。2025Q2，分销成本同比增长64%至4.07亿美元，增速超过收入增长，导致RLDC利润率从去年同期的 公司研究 42%下降至38%。公司给出的2025财年RLDC利润率指引为36%-38%，表明管理层预期下半年分销成本压力将持续，但仍处于可控范围。 ➢费用管控。经营费用指引为4.75～4.9亿美元，低于市场预期，表明公司在扩张中注重运营效率。 ➢多元化收入战略。公司在降息周期风险、高渠道分成压力下积极拓展非利息收入，其他收入指引7500-8500万美元，符合市场预期。 配售计划引发市场担忧 ➢财报后股价温和上涨。二季度财报公布后，Circle股价于当地时间周二（8月12日）小幅收涨1.3%。 ➢大规模股票配售计划引发市场担忧。随后，公司宣布大规模股票配售计划：公司与股东拟联合出售1000万股（公司发售200万股，现有股东出售800万股）。若按周二收盘价163.21美元计算，预计筹资约16.3亿美元（最终定价将于8月14日周四晚间确定）。消息公布后，公司股价于周二盘后一度急挫超6%。投资者尚未完全消化财报利好，管理层即宣布售股，引发负面情绪。尤其令市场不安的是，现有股东出售的800万股远超公司发行量，加剧了投资者对内部人士套现的担忧。受此影响，公司股价周三（8月13日）收盘下跌6.15%。 ➢短期波动，长期前景未改。我们认为，配售计划或导致股价短期波动，但长期仍看好稳定币市场的高增长潜力及Circle的合规优势。 风险 超预期降息；分销成本高企；稳定币行业竞争加剧；监管环境持续演变等。 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings:The Benchmark:NASDAQIndexTime Horizon:6 to 12 months BuyRelative Performance>20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.AccumulateRelative Performance is 5% to20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.NeutralRelative Performance is-5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.ReduceRelative Performance is-5% to-20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.SellRelative Performance <-20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Ratings:The Benchmark:NASDAQIndex Time Horizon: 6 to 12 months OutperformRelative Performance>5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.NeutralRelative Performance is-5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.UnderperformRelative Performance<-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates servesas an officer ofthe listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively “Guosen Securities (HK)”) has no disclosable financialinterests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has noinvestment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individualemployed by thelisted companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit madeas a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealingagreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investmentbanking or other business(such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals ofGuosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy orcompleteness ofsuch information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives,financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are whollyresponsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation containedin this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or asolicitation of an offer tobuy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK)’s written authorization, any form ofquotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions containe