隆平高科（000998）：2025年第一季度利润受限，重点关注新销售季节的表现。

1Q25 Profit Constrained,Focus onNew Sales Season Performance Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (RMB):11.34 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 15 May 2025│China (Mainland) Planting AnalystFAN JunhaoSAC No. S0570524050001SFC No. BDO986fanjunhao@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 Yuan Longping High-tech’s 2024 revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NPwere RMB8,566/114/-289mn (-7.13/-43.08/-159.31% yoy), with 4Q24 revenue/attributable NP of RMB5,685/589mn (-2.91/-24.31% yoy, +1,801.10/+200.44%qoq).1Q25 revenue fellby32% yoy to RMB1.41bn, withtheattributable NPswinging to a loss of RMB-2mn yoy, which missed our estimate of RMB65-75mnprofit, primarily due to delayed seed-delivery progress. Given the company’sindustry-leading variety edges, we are positive on its earnings resilience for2025/2026. Maintain BUY. AnalystXIONG Chenghui, PhDSAC No.S0570522120004SFC No. BPK020xiongchenghui@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Key data orn seed under pressure while rice outperformWe attribute the 2024 yoy declines in revenue and attributable NP to: 1) weakening willingness amongfarmerstoplantamid domestic corn-price pressure, leading toseed-sales underperformance; 2) corn-seed price dropsin Brazil coupled withcurrency depreciation, with Longping Agriscience recordinganRMB860mn lossin2024 (with FX losses likely exceeding RMB400mn on our estimate).In 2024, thecompany’s corn-seed revenue was RMB5.0bn (-17% yoy), withthegross margindownby5.4pp yoy to 34.6%;hybrid rice revenue grewby13% yoy to RMB2.0bn,withthegross marginupby1.23pp yoy to 37.6%,showingresilient competitiveadvantages in rice operations. 1Q25turned toyoy loss; planting-season recovery in focusThe company sawa32% yoy revenue decline andanattributable net loss in 1Q25,withinventorydestocking pressure amid domestic corn-seed oversupply,andintensifiedcompetitionfromhomogeneousvarieties.Lookingahead,webelieve food-security concerns amid trade tensions should reinforce policy supportfor seed self-sufficiency. With domestic corn production falling in 2024 (tighteningS/Ddynamics)andtheglobalcornstocks-to-useratiolikelyfallingfortwoconsecutive years, we expect corn prices in China to bottom out. We believe that,asa leader in bothChina’s corn&rice markets with strong R&D capabilities, thecompany stands to benefit early fromamarket recovery, and its leading position inGM corn commercialization further supports 2025/2026 (4Q25-3Q26) earningsupsidepotential. Source:Wind Earningsforecasts and valuationGiven intensified competitioninthecorn market , we cut our 2025-2026 corn-seedgross margin assumptions. Wehencelower our earnings forecasts, with 2025E-2026EattributableNPatRMB212/433mn(previous:RMB902/1,199mn).Weintroduceour2027attributable NPforecast of RMB525mn.Applying 3.0x2025EPB, above itspeers’averageof2.7xon Wind consensus, we derive ourtargetprice of RMB11.34 (previous: RMB14.85 on 21.84x2025EPE),factoringin: 1)robust R&D capabilities and leadership in GMO commercialization; 2) globalexpansion(LongpingBrazilbeingatoplocalplayer);3)capitalstructureoptimizationupon completion ofprivate placement. Maintain BUY. Risks: disappointing progress inthe promotion of GMO varieties; loose industryregulation; lower grain prices than we expect. Source:Wind, Huatai Research Source:Wind, Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, FAN Junhao, XIONG Chenghui, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal view sof the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (h ereinafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or herreceipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate.Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital mayoccur.Huatai makes no warrants that the information in this report be kept up to date. The information contained in this report maybemodified without no