香飘飘（603711）：ST压力下的盈利，预期旺季改善

EarningsUnder ST Pressure,ID toImprove inPeak Season Rating (Maintain):OVERWEIGHTTarget price (RMB):16.00 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 14 May 2025│China (Mainland) Beverage AnalystGONG YuanyueSAC No. S0570520100001SFC No. BQL737gongyuanyue@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 XiangpiaopiaoFood’s(XPP)2024revenue/attributablenetprofit(NP)wereRMB3.29/0.25bn (-9.3/-9.7% yoy), with 4Q24 at RMB1.35/0.24bn (-18.1/-14.9%yoy). For1Q25, theywereRMB580/-20mn (-20.0%/turning negative yoy).Bybusiness,instantdrink(ID)/ready-to-drink(RTD)revenueschangedby-15.4/+8.0% yoyfor 2024(4Q24:-21.3/+8.5% yoy),andby-37.2/+13.9% yoyfor1Q25.In 1Q25, theID businessfaced shipmentpressures during peak seasonsamidexternal headwinds.Adheringtoaong-termperspective,XPPprioritizeschannelhealthandsustainabledevelopmentofsalessystem.Itseffortstomaintainpricestabilityandprotectdistributorinterestshavekeptchannelinventories at healthy levels.Besides, XPPaims to align with health-conscious andyouth-oriented market trends through new product R&D/launches. WeexpectimprovedRTDperformance in upcoming peak seasons. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. AnalystWANG KexinSAC No. S0570524020001SFC No. BVO215wangkexin019215@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Key data D channel inventoryat healthy levels, RTD to gain tractionIn 2024, ID revenue was RMB2.27bn (-15.4% yoy); RTD revenuewasRMB970mn (+8.0% yoy), with Meco fruit tea contributing RMB780mn (+20.7% yoy). 1Q25ID/RTD revenues were RMB300/270mn (-37.2/+13.9% yoy). External headwindsduring peak seasonsexertedshipment pressuresonID products.Evenso, XPPmaintained price stability and distributor interests, with current channel inventoriesstayingat healthy levels. Among RTD products in 1Q25, Meco fruit tea sustainedsales growth momentum while frozen lemon tea faced pressure and milk tearemainedstable.WeexpectimprovedpeakseasonperformanceforRTD.Revenuesfrom distributors/e-commerce/export/direct saleschannelschangedby-9.1/-25.4/+9.9/+22.8%yoyfor2024,andby-21.5/-7.7/+14.4/-39.3%yoyfor1Q25.XPPis actively exploring emergingchannels includingmass-market snackstores and catering channels. Source:Wind ID segment faced pressure in 1Q25, driving profitability contractionThe 2024overallgross margin improvedby0.8pp yoy to 38.3%, primarily on falling raw-material costs,althoughthe4Q24 margin dippedby0.2pp yoy due to revenueweakness in high-margin ID products. The 2024 sales/administrative expenseratios changed by-0.6pp (reflecting optimized promotional spending)/+0.5pp yoyto 23.2/6.8% (4Q24:-0.5pp/flat yoy).Overall,the2024 attributable net margin heldsteadyyoy at 7.7% (4Q24: +0.6pp yoy).The 1Q25 gross margin fellby2.4pp yoyto 31.2%, andthesales/administrative expense ratios roseby2.8/1.8pp yoy to26.8/9.4%.The attributable net margin for 1Q25 declinedby6.7pp yoyto-3.2%,mainly reflecting proactive inventory destocking amid temporary pressure on IDoperations. Expectoperational improvements; maintain OVERWEIGHTConsideringthatRTD business optimizationstill takes time, we cutour 2025/2026revenue forecasts by 16/15%.We revise downour2025/2026 EPS estimatesby19/17%toRMB0.64/0.74,and introduceour2027 forecast of RMB0.79.We assigna25x2025E PE to XPP, at par with its peers’average on Wind consensus, for ourtarget price of RMB16.00 (previous: RMB13.14, at 18x 24E PE, in line withits thenpeers’average). Risks:intensified market competition; weakermacroeconomic performance thanweexpect; food-safety issues. Source:Wind, Huatai Research Source:Wind, Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, GONG Yuanyue, WANG Kexin, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (her einafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate.Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not g