荷兰兄弟（BROS）：4月持续表现优异，指引可能较为保守

USA | RestaurantsDutch Bros Outperformance Cont. Into April, Guide Likely ToProve Conservative 1Q SSS beat led by co-owned comp 6.9% w/ 3.7% traffic and confident mgmtteam cited momentum continuing into April, highlighting idiosyncratic driversand resiliency to uncertain demand trends facing some other restaurants.EBITDA beat with COGS tame; n-t macro uncertain, but we think BROS exposurerelatively insulated (coffee locked for '25). FY guide & Street expectations likelyto prove conservative, we raise our '25-26 ests and reit Buy rating w/ $70 PT. SSS strength continued into April, raising our ests.Despite facing the toughest y/y compare for'25, 1Q system SSS 4.7% and co-owned SSS 6.9% beat expectations, while franchisees lagged (lessMOP adoption, newer vintages helping the Co. comp), and system/co-owned traffic up 1.3% and3.7%, respectively. Momentum continued into April and 2Q guided to 3-4% system SSS, which wethink could prove conservative, as could F25 guide for the top half of the prior 2-4% SSS range.Supported by momentum in digital, rewards (up to 71.8% of transactions vs 66.5% 1Y ago) withpersonalization, paid advertising in new and mature markets, menu innovation including LTOs,MOP adoption (11% of transactions at end of 1Q), throughput initiatives in early innings, and foodtests continuing throughout the yr, we raise our '25 system SSS to 3.6% (fr 3.2%) and maintain 3.0%in '26. We also think further upside could emerge as high performing newer units enter the compbase (ex: Texas, see Investor Day paid media case study). EBITDA/margin beat and our ests go higher.Adj EBITDA $62.9m beat Cons $57.2m with RLM31.1% vs Cons 30.0%, largely driven by lower COGS 24.9% (vs 26.3%) more than offsetting higherlabor given carryover from CA wage hikes last yr, but now lapped, and we think 2-4Q labor likelyflattish y/y as sales leverage offset by investments into store manager comp last month. Mgmtcontinues to expect -110bps of COGS pressure in '25 largely driven by coffee (locked in rest of yr)and w/ potential tariff impacts now included (<10% of total basket sourced from Int'l), with eff.pricing moderating from 4% in 1Q to 2.5% in 2Q and ~1.8% in the 2H. We raise our '25/26 RLM eststo 30.9%/31.0% (fr 30.4%/30.6%) and add slightly more SG&A leverage per mgmt commentary,partly offset by higher pre-opening expense. Our '25/26 EBITDA ests go higher to $265m/$330m(fr $261m/$325m) on the co's definition. Development:Co opened 30 new stores in 1Q and 2Q set to be similar, followed by a meaningfulaccel. in the 2H as '25 guide was reiterated for at least 160 openings. Manager pipeline, siteselection process, and new market brand awareness efforts remain robust; we model 16%/15%net growth in '25/26. Our view:Strong start to the yr with '25 guidance poised to be proven conservative/raised, andsame for Street expectations. Unique brand and op model along with LT growth potential/TAMremains attractive and underappreciated, led by a highly competent mgmt team. Buy, PT $70 on~39x our '26 EV/EBITDA, a premium to high-growth consumer peers. Andy Barish * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.com Alexander Slagle, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1508 | aslagle@jefferies.com Marshall Pittman * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1467 | mpittman@jefferies.com Ivan Yu * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1441 | iyu@jefferies.com The Long View: Dutch Bros Investment Thesis / Where We Differ Dutch Bros is a powerful brand, led by an experienced leadership team anddriven at the store level by enthusiastic, engaging staff who serve tastybeverages in a distinctive and fun drive-thru environment. We view the long-term growth algorithm as attractive and likely to prove conservative. Althoughvaluation is certainly frothy, we think BROS is a compelling Buy. Upside Scenario,$84, +42% Base Case,$70, +18% Downside Scenario,$40, -32% System SSS in '25/26: 2%/1.0%System unit growth in '25/26: 15%/14%JEF Adj. EBITDA in '25/26: $235/275mPT $40, ~25x '26E EV/EBITDA System SSS in '25/26: 4.5%/4%System unit growth in '25/26: 17%/16%JEF Adj. EBITDA in '25/26: $284/350mPT $84, ~46x '26E EV/EBITDA System SSS in '25/26: 3.6%/3.0%System unit growth in '25/26: 16.2%/14.6%JEF Adj. EBITDA in '25/26: $254m/321mPT $70, ~39x our '26E EV/EBITDA Sustainability Matters Catalysts Continued Rewards members growthMobile ordering pilot & expansionExpanded food options tests & expansionCPG entry in 2026Seasonal menu additionsNew unit AUVs either deteriorating or returning to$2m+ levels, and success/failure in new markets Top Material Issue(s): 1)Labor Practiceshave a direct impact on an operator’s ability to attract & retaintalent at both the hourly & manager level, which affect service levels and the customer experience, andthus translate to revenues and the pipeline of talent to support future store growth.2) Supply ChainManagement,both as a function of responsible sourcing (animal welfare, carbon footprint throughoutthe supply chain) and in