甲醇周度报告

综述：震荡承压01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述➢国内现货：本周国内甲醇市场下跌为主。国内甲醇生产供应高位，且进口供应存增量预期，市场信心不足，对市场形成压制，国内甲醇市场下跌为主。沿海甲醇市场由于目前库存低位，且市场可流通量低位，以及近期库存累库速度或不快，对现货及近月市场形成支撑，沿海市场跌幅小于内地，内地至华东沿海市场顺流套利空间开启。(隆众资讯）➢基本面：本周甲醇港口库存窄幅累库，库存积累主要表现在华南，周期内显性外轮计入20.66万吨，部分靠泊外轮尚未计入在内。江苏沿江刚需提货稳健，大型终端主力维持非显性库区原料管输，但库存仍略有去库；浙江地区下游消耗平稳，外轮补充下库存窄幅波动。本周华南港口库存继续累库，主要体现在广东地区，周期内进口及内贸到货集中，主流库区受假期影响下提货量骤减，库存亦有增加。而福建地区部分在卸船只尚未计入库存，下游刚需消耗下，库存呈现去库。(隆众资讯）➢期货：中期趋势偏弱没有结束，短期内地偏强给予一定支撑。伊朗地区甲醇发运情况仍是市场博弈重点，伊朗发运速度仍然是超预期，6月之后中国进口压力仍然是偏大。5月由于到港货源直接去下游MTO工厂，到港偏少，预计港口维持偏低库存。但是6月之后累库趋势仍然是大概率。MTO目前整体开工率较高，盛虹检修预计5月下旬回归，开工率偏高。内地在宝丰持续外采的背景下，现货相对坚挺，但是煤炭价格仍然偏弱，后续反弹空间仍然有限。➢策略建议：震荡偏空，期现正套+盘面反套➢风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； 3 价格及价差02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures基差，月差，仓单-300-200-100010020030040001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨CZCE：甲醇：基差（日）2020202120222023-200-100010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨1-5月差2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内现货价格05001000150020002500300035004000450001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：内蒙古（日）202020212022050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：河南（日）202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国际现货价格010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06美元/吨甲醇中国CFR202020212022010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06欧元/吨甲醇鹿特丹FOB202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures港口内地价差-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06元/吨太仓-河北202020212022-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-25元/吨太仓-川渝202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇检修汇总企业简称年产能（吨）湖北三宁120000宁夏宝丰2200000宁夏宝丰400000内蒙古九鼎100000四川达兴200000西北能源300000云南先锋500000兖矿国焦250000宁夏宝丰300000久泰新材料（托县）2000000金能科技100000四川泸天化400000陕西精益化工260000贵州天福200000新疆天业300000内蒙古宝丰2800000龙兴泰300000 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量及开工率15000017000019000021000023000025000027000029000031000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-18吨甲醇：产量：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025606570758085909510001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04%甲醇：产能利用率：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量—分工艺10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1805-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0308-1608-2809-1009-23吨甲醇：焦炉气制甲醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025800000900000100000011000001200000130000014000001500000160000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1805-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0308-1608-2809-1009-23吨甲醇：煤单醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇开工率—分地区606570758085909510001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西北地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025010203040506070809010001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西南地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇进口相关0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31吨甲醇：进口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202205001000150020002500300035004000450001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-18元/吨甲醇进口成本202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇成本050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：内蒙古（日）2020202116001650170017501800185019001950200001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产成本：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇利润0100020003000400050006000700001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-27元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：山东（日）20202021-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-15元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产毛利：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游开工率40506070809010011001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%甲醇制烯烃：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023051015202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%二甲醚：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游-MTBE0102030405060708001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%MTBE：产能利用率：中国（月）201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游利润(MTO)-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-01