尿素周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述：偏强运行➢国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价355.01-360.01美元/吨，上调97美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，下调3-5美元/吨；波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，下调3-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸370.01-385.01美元/吨，下调10-20美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR价格370.01-380.01美元/吨，下调20美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。预计后续国内期货市场及现货市场交易逻辑逐渐与国际基本面接轨。➢国内现货：本周尿素工厂出厂价在《保供稳价》政策管控下稳定运行。尿素贸易商报价小幅探涨，预计后续仍呈现缓慢上涨格局。➢基本面：截至2025年5月7日，中国尿素企业总库存量106.56万吨，较上周减少12.61万吨，环比减少10.58%。本周期正值五一假期，尿素工厂前期收单充足，主发前期订单，市场受出口消息的影响，成交重心上移，下游提货速度有所改善。其中企业库存增加的省份：河南、湖北、青海、四川；企业库存减少的省份：安徽、甘肃、海南、河北、黑龙江、吉林、江苏、江西、辽宁、内蒙古、山东、山西、陕西、新疆、云南。整体而言，由于短期贸易商投机性较强，下周尿素生产企业库存预计仍呈现库存下降的格局。➢期货：预计短期尿素价格呈现偏强运行的格局。基本面而言，东北地区追肥需求以及中原地区夏季肥需求正在陆续释放，基层对尿素进行刚需原料补库。此外，出口信息造成短期内贸易商投机性有所增加。因此刚需及囤货共同释放背景下造成前期尿素期货大幅上涨，目前尿素仍维持偏强运行的状态，9-1月差仍处于正套格局。➢策略建议：短期投机性偏强，单边偏强运行；9-1月差正套运行为主；➢风险点：宏观事件冲击、出口政策调整，国际能源价格大幅波动； 2资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 估值端：价格及价差01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素基差01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0120192020202101-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-01201920202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素月差及仓单01-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-045-9月差201920202021202201-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-041-5月差2019202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国内现货价格10001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24元/吨正元小颗粒尿素出厂价2019202020212022202310001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24吨河北小颗粒尿素市场价20192020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国际现货价格01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08波罗的海大颗粒尿素FOB20182019202020212022202301-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08中国小颗粒尿素FOB201820192020202120222023 国内供应02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素生产企业检修计划企业全称山东联盟化工股份有限公司陕西渭河煤化工集团有限责任公司陕西陕化煤化工集团有限公司陕西陕化煤化工集团有限公司山西天泽煤化工集团股份公司山东晋煤明升达化工有限公司江苏华昌化工股份有限公司江苏华昌化工股份有限公司兖矿鲁南化工有限公司阳煤丰喜肥业(集团)有限责任公司 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures产量：生产利润在盈亏平衡线上，尿素日产仍维持高位10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31吨尿素：产量：中国（日）201820192020202120222023202420255055606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19%尿素：产能利用率：中国（日）2018202289101112131415161701-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27万吨煤头尿素：产量：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202500.511.522.533.544.5501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19万吨气头尿素：产量：中国（日）20182022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures成本：原料价格相对稳定，工厂现金流成本线在1364元/吨附近01-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2406-0506-1807-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28尿素气流床完全成本2018201920202021202220232024202510001500200025003000350001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2406-0506-1807-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28元/吨尿素固定床完全成本20182019202020212022202320242025100012001400160018002000220024002600280001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-28元/吨20182022原料煤：7000卡无烟块动力煤：5800卡无烟末煤原料煤运费动力煤运费原料煤动力煤原料煤动力煤电耗电费其他成本（水、辅料、催化剂等）财务折旧现金流成本完全成本氨耗电耗电费1000615303010306451.150.2512000.51100300205823580.581500.511000625303010306551.150.2512000.51100300206023600.581500.511000625303010306551.150.2512000.51100300206023600.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000635303010306651.150.2512000.51100300206323630.581500.511000645303010306751.150.2512000.51100300206523650.581500.511000645303010306751.150.2512000.51100300206523650.581500.511000645303010306751.150.2512000.51100300206523650.581500.511000645303010306751.150.2512000.51100300206523650.581500.51山西地区固定床工厂完全成本及现金流成本测算煤炭坑口煤炭运费煤炭到厂煤炭单耗 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures利润：尿素现金流成本所对应利润目前在盈利状态-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0101-1401-2702-09元/吨-200020040060080010001200140001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2406-0506-1807-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28元/吨尿素气流床完全成本生产利润20182019202020212022202320242025-400-