东加勒比货币联盟：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperon the Eastern CaribbeanCurrency Union was prepared bythestaffteam ofthe International Monetary fund as backgrounddocumentation for the periodicconsultation with the member countries. It is based on the information available at thetime it was completed on April 9, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. EASTERN CARIBBEANCURRENCY UNION SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared BySophia Chen,Janne Hukka,Peter Nagle,Jonas Nauerz, Camilo E. Tovar and Spencer Siegel withresearch analysis by Diego Gutierrez (all WHD). CONTENTS POWERING THE FUTURE: ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGIES FOR THE ECCU __3 A. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________3B. The Energy Landscape ____________________________________________________________4C. Strategies for a Successful Energy Transition _____________________________________6D. The Energy Transition as an Opportunity to Strengthen the ECCU________________7E. Policy Options ____________________________________________________________________8 References _________________________________________________________________________10 ECCU CBI PROGRAMS: REGIONAL SIGNIFICANCE AND RISKS__________________12 FIGURE 1. Historical and Projected Government CBI Revenue ______________________________13 TABLES 1. Overview of the ECCU CBI Programs_____________________________________________132. Overview of the Recent ECCU CBI Reform Initiatives _____________________________15 References _________________________________________________________________________17 FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND NATURAL DISASTER RISKS IN THE ECCU ______18 EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENCY UNION FIGURES 1. Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters _______________________________________________182. Frequency and Damage of Natural Disasters in the ECCU_____________________________193. Change in Debt, Primary Fiscal Balances, and GDP After Severe NDs _________________204. Local Projection Results _______________________________________________________________21 References_______________________________________________________________________________23 PROPERTY INSURANCE CHALLENGES IN THE ECCU _________________________________24 A. Context: Property Insurance Developments and Risks ________________________________24B. Policy Implications ____________________________________________________________________26 FIGURE 1. Hurricane Exposure and Property Insurance __________________________________________25 TABLE1. Common Types of Reinsurance Contracts_____________________________________________27 1. Selected International PPIP Examples and Lessons Learned___________________________29 References_______________________________________________________________________________30 POWERING THE FUTURE: ENERGY TRANSITIONSTRATEGIES FOR THE ECCU1 Reducing energy dependence in the ECCU entails improving energy efficiency and shifting from fossilfuels to renewable energy (RE). This energy transition (ET) will affect the transmission of andvulnerability to shocks (e.g., from natural disasters or commodity markets) while at the same timehelping to reduce economic imbalances and enhance growth potential. Policymakers need to establishframeworks to maximize the benefits of the ET, while ensuring it is sustainable and equitable. A.Introduction 1.The ET is an opportunity for the ECCU to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels,enhance macroeconomic stability, and bolster growth prospects.ECCU countries are among themost energy dependent in the world, which is a key macroeconomic vulnerability and source of current account imbalances. Moreover, the use of costly oilimports for electricity generation has led to very highelectricity prices, undermining competitiveness—particularly for the tourism industry—at the expense ofpotential growth that has exhibited a trend declineamong ECCU countries in recent decades. Oil priceshocks can also have adverse effects on inflation andexternal and fiscal positions. For example, the 2022 oilprice spike led to oil imports rising by nearly 3percentage points of GDP. Shifting from imported oil toRE could boost long-term growth and support economicconvergence and resilience, while insulating economies from global oil price fluctuations. 2.There are major challenges to achieving the ET in the ECCU.Importing RE technologymay widen the current account deficit given high up-front costs of renewables. The small size of theislands’ electricity markets limits economies of scale, increasing the cost of RE projects, anddeterring investment. Limited land availability constrains solar and onshore wind deployment, andthe small scale of grids creates challenges in integrating va