东加勒比货币联盟：2025年成员国共同政策讨论工作人员报告新闻稿；员工报告

2025STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2025 DISCUSSION ONCOMMON POLICIES OF MEMBER COUNTRIES—PRESSRELEASE; ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles ofAgreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year.In the context of the2025Article IVConsultationwithmember countriesforming the ECCU,the following documents have been released andare included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsiderationon a lapse-of-time basis,following discussions that ended onFebruary6, 2025, with the officials of the ECCUoneconomic developments and policies.Basedon information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted onApril 9,2025. •ASupplementupdatinginformation on recent developments. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMF staff. The documents listed belowhave been or will be separately released. •Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Discussions onCommon Policies of Member Countries of the EasternCaribbean Currency Union FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – May 8, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1with member countries on common policies of theEastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The Board considered and endorsed the staffappraisal without a meeting.2 The currency union has provided a strong anchor for macroeconomic stability.In 2024,strong tourism performance and continued infrastructure investments have supported robustgrowth of 3.9 percent, and inflation moderated to below 2 percent in tune with global trends.This has facilitated a moderate reduction in the currency union’s fiscal and externalimbalances, although public debt remains high at above 71 percent of GDP and the post-pandemic trend of narrowing of sizable current account deficits has stalled. The ECCB’s stablereserves underpin a strong currency backing ratio. The ECCU financial system has remainedstable, though exhibiting legacy asset quality and credit condition weaknesses. The union’s recent growth momentum is projected to wane.Increasing constraints totourism capacity and completion of major infrastructure projects are set to slow real GDPgrowth to around 2½ percent over the medium term. Modest growth prospects reflect weakproductivity and local investment, as well as headwinds from ageing populations, a shrinkinglabor force, and constrained fiscal space for public investment in most union members. Fiscaland external imbalances are projected to narrow over the medium term, reflecting in partcompletion of import-intensive public investment projects. 2The staff report reflects discussions with the authorities during January 8-16 and January 27-February 10, 2025, and isbased on the information available as of March 31, 2025. It, therefore, does not reflect the impact of the escalation oftrade tensions on and after April 2, 2025. Based on information available until April 29, 2025, and covered in the StaffSupplement, the thrust of the staff appraisal remains unchanged. Risks to the outlook remain mostly on the downside amid a highly uncertain externalenvironment.As reported in the April World Economic Outlook, the escalation of tradetensions and high levels of policy uncertainty are a major negative shock to global economicactivity. For ECCU economies, increased global trade and geopolitical tensions could give riseto disruptions to tourism and FDI inflows and renewed inflationary pressures. High public debt,persistent current account deficits and weaknesses in the local financial system amplifyvulnerability to recurrent ND shocks alongside the uncertain outlook for future citizenship-by-investment inflows. Executive Board Assessment3 The ECCU has achieved a strong rebound from successive adverse shocks.Strong tourismperformance and continued infrastructure investments have supported robust post-pandemicgrowth, while inflation has moderated in tune with global trends. This has facilitated amoderate reduction in the currency union’s fiscal and external imbalances, although publicdebt levels and current account deficits remain high in several members. The ECCU’s externalposition is assessed as weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policies, but thecurrent account deficits remain fully financed and the stability of the ECCB’s reserves underpina strong currency backing ratio. The financial system has remained stable, albeit exhibitingcontinued asset qua