通胀挂钩日报：我们对全球通胀市场的每日分析套餐和评论。

Inflation-Linked Daily Our daily analytics package and commentary on globalinflation markets. Michael Pond, CFA+1 212 412 5051michael.pond@barclays.comBCI, US The US breakeven curve steepened on Friday, with front-end declines giving way to a rally inforwards (2yfwd3y +5bp, 5y5y +4bp). The front end was dragged lower by a drop in energyprices, partially driven by news that OPEC+ was brining forward a meeting to discuss potentiallyincreasing production to over this past weekend.1Real yields jumped sharply (nearly 20bp on acarry-adjusted basis) in the front end, while forwards rose more modestly (5y5y and 10yfwd20y+1bp). The April employment situation report showed NFP surprise to the upside, rising 177k,while the March gain was revised lower, leaving the 3mma pace close to Barclays economists'forecast. Per our economics team: "Details showed a resilient labor market amid gains inemployment, participation rate and steady hours worked, with no apparent sign of distress."Data this week include ISM services, unit labor costs, and FRBNY inflation expectations.Wednesday brings the May FOMC meeting. Finally, in TIPS in rear-view mirror are farther thanthey appear, we discuss how foreign TIPS holdings grew sharply from June 2023 through June2024. However, the extremely lagged data limits their usefulness, leaving demand for TIPSmurkier than other parts of the UST market. Higher-frequency data show strong inflows intoshort TIPS, but a drop in foreign auction demand. Iaroslav Shelepko+44 (0) 20 7773 3557iaroslav.shelepko@barclays.comBarclays, UK Jonathan Hill, CFA+1 212 526 3497jonathan.hill@barclays.comBCI, US EUR real yields cheapened 3-5bp on Friday, while EUR breakevens rallied 2-4bp. In relativevalue, iotas were biassed tighter. In swaps, HICPx rallied 4bp in 1y, 7bp in 1y1y, and up to 4bp inlonger forwards. In data yesterday, flash EA April headline/core inflation surprised to the upside,coming in at 2.2%/2.7% y/y, with services inflation likely beingliftedby Easter seasonaleffects.In Not all bad news, we argue that a tactical recovery in EUR inflation could have more room torun. We recommend buying 5y Spain BEs, part energy-hedged. In supply on Thursday, Spain'sTesoro will tap the SPGBei 2030. UK real yields cheapened up to 6bp on Friday, led by the back end, while UK breakevens gained1-3bp. In RPI swaps, 1y rallied 6bp, while most forwards closed 1-3bp higher. The main eventthis week is the BoE MPC meeting. Our economists expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bpand revise down its inflation forecast, signalling that the balance of risks hasshiftedto a lessinflationary outlook. In data this week we get RICS house price balance and DMP survey onThursday, as well as KPMG/RecUK report on jobs on Friday. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 59. CONTENTS Short-end Inflation Swaps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4TIPS Rich/Cheap Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Euro Linker Relative Value Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Estimated Seasonally Adjusted Euro Breakevens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Short-dated €i Linker Valuation versus Nominals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10UK Linker Relative Value Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Breakevens vs Base and Energy-Adjusted Barclays CPI Forecast. . . . . . 14Front-end TIPS Breakeven Cheapness History. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Detailed CPI Fixings m/m Path. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16TIPS Market Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17TIPS Breakeven Performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Euro Area Market Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25UK Market Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30TIPS Implied 5y5y and 10fwd20y Cash Forward Breakevens. . . . . . . . . . 36TIPS Implied 5y5y and 10yfwd20y Cash Forward Real Yields. . . . . . . . . 38TIPS Implied 1y Tenor Cash Forward Breakevens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39TIPS Implied 1y Tenor Core Cash Forward Breakevens. . . . . . . . . . . . . .40TIPS Implied 1y Tenor Cash Forward Breakeven Curve. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411y Tenor Forward US CPI Swap Rates. . . . . . . . . . .