2025年商业房地产市场展望报告

2025SingaporeReal EstateMarket Outlook REPORT Uncertainties Ahead,Opportunities Abound CBRERESEARCHSINGAPOREJANUARY2025 2025SingaporeReal Estate Market Outlook Contents 01 Economy Dceleration ofGDP growth. kcy milestoneevents in2025 Advaricc eslimalcs shuviccd hal singa suru's cccnurny oul ourfurriccdexpectstions ir 202i, expanding by i.0% y o y.n acce eraticr from tne 1.1%CD 2 growtl- in 2023, and surpass'ng TI's projection of *.0 to 3.%"in Feb2024. H2 2024 saw grnv:h primarily driven hy a resurgenr:e in themanufacturingl secte>r, buowxl by an uptyrr in gloal dma "d for elecronicsScivicc suclol GDP g1cLh a so accluralud in 2024, cxceul furAcconrriodacion &: Focd Senvices which slcwed frorn a high base in 2023 Singapc'e's econcmic growt rate is ex3ected 5 derelerate in 2025, witl- theMTi orecastig ar ecrnamic expansinr nf 1 :3%. The small, apen ecaamyfaccs significant cxternsl challengcs includ ing crotoctionist oolicics under troricw Trlr'p acimir'sLraliur', anliuipulud s owur gr uwtin ainurig koy lr auingPartners, and possisle escalation in geopc itic=l tensions. Neverthelzss. several pasit ve factors could support naar-term grcwth. Growthmamentuin from the angning manufacturing sectrr recavery is expecced tnsustain into arly 2025 and la bcur ma'kct condliticrs should romin sta blcW th 2025 Ixoing Singalxirc's Both birthday as woll as a clection year, morogovernmental anc iscal support is likely tor scciety and businesses. Thecantinued easing s" interest rates vculd alsa se ccnd Jrive for growth.thoughthe mag aitude af interest rate cuts msy be henign. Additional y, two koy covoloomente nay sh pe Singapores roal cstatoldridscaou in .hu I'lediu il lerin. Ths Uiben Reduvuloprriuril Aulhurily s DraliMaster Plan 2025, uxpe:lud L'y iid-2025 wi I culline Sinyapur o s lard use anicdevelapment strategy for the next 10 - 15 years. The renently estatlishedJohor-Slngapare Speclal Economic Zane (JS-sEz) could provide bothopportunitics and challenges fer loxcal businesecs anc invoetmonts. lnflation to stabilise Q3 2024 saw All-ilerl inf alion cass Lo 2.2% y-v-y. turnpe1cc: lo Lhu 4.1% y-o-y inurcasuin 03 2023. All item intlation has since rncder=ted furcher tc 1.6% y y in Nov 2024 andis expeted to ccme 'n at around 2.5% for the whole of 2024, c.own fror 4.6% in 2023. Mcinc fcward, al:hru.gh Singisncre's nilstion rste has eased, several fartcrs nu dimpod its further dc inc. hese incluco gop>licical ccnflicts nd commoc ity priceshucks. whic h rllay inurcasu irlsurl cos Ls. Duricslically, uuuriolnic Galpurfur irlanv iriH2 202i could lead hig her labour derriand, potencially slowing the norma lis=tion ctservice sector inflation. The M.A5 prnjects eadline inflstion tn range between 1.5%, anc: 2.5y far 2y25,assum ng thosc uxido risks co not materialisco, Conversoly,t1ere is also the 9oseibi ityLhal a rlajol global oconcric slowJon in 2025 ccilc uausu d rap'd oesiny ofl ccsl ancprice pressures, potenti= lly driving comestic inflaticn below expected levels. Interest ratecuts to taper in 2025 Ir 202ri, the Federal Reserve in pleriented a series of rate cuts totalirg 100 bpsstarting in September as inflation moved :loser to the Fed's 2% targe-. By che Dec 2024FOMC meetinc, the Fed Funcs: Target Rate hac: been lowered to 4.25%, - 4.5%.Corroeponlinsly, Sinsiaxore's domestic interoet ratos also fell. thousih at e morogr adual pee, uas'ng by appioxiralely 80 bps lu 3.1% over Lhe sarrie puriuc. As we look tcwards 2025, the Fed is anticipated o cont'nue cuttirg rates, albeit lessagc ressively than in 2024, This more cautious apprcac is partly due tc pctentialinflatianary pressu,res thst may arise frcm pc icies propasd by Trunp s adm nistrat an.Projoctions uggoet the Fod Furds Targct Rao may decrease by an axlcitional 5o bps.reachinig a rarigu cf 3.75% - 4.00% by the anc uf 2025. l 's expucled that sirigapoie'sdonestic interest rates will fcl lov a similar dcvwrw=rc trend. Office Encouraging netabsorpiionbutslowereconomicgrowthpresentschallenges In 2024. Singapoic's of[ co markcl oxpericncod a mixcd pe Tormanco. Fol moslcf 2024, eas'ng volumes had been slow on high fit-out costs. workp scecranstormations and ongoing hybrid work arranger encs. However, netabsc'ptioninproved to 1.s1 m I sg. ft., the hichest sirae 2017, ss twc: largeGrade A cfflco ccvelcoments 1.26 ml sxj. ft. Ior centrsJ Joufevard Towers andO.7O mil sc, TL. Labrcic: Torrcr wure complolcd d uring lho yoar, ancl pic-ccrrirnitments ovar the past 2-3 ye=rs materialisecl intc occupancy. As thestenants move to the new premises. sone may retu'n space when their currertleases expire n 2025. In acditlon, with th cconomlc 9rrwth rat snticlpstod to slow in 2(125, leasingmerncr lum may Le lcrmpoicd. Busincsses mighl carn Lowaide reniowring leases.rther than ralocate or gxpdnd. They iridy slso seek rncg t xib:ility ir tneirleasing optians, a trend t nat has been influenci ng the market fcr che past woyears. Banking, legal ancl tech lrive leasing cle:mancl F