高管对首要风险的看法：2025年近长期关键问题

2025 EDITIONEXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVESON TOP RISKS for the Near- and Long-Term Key issues being discussed in theboardroom and C-suite Research conducted by NC State University’s ERM Initiative and Protiviti Table of contents 72Analysis acrossdifferent industrygroups 95Closing comments Introduction Boards of directors and senior executive teamsface a complex web of uncertainties. These maygenerate opportunities for strategic advantageor risks leading to unexpected disruption andperformance shortfalls. An ability to anticipaterisks that may be on the horizon before theybecome imminent can help leaders navigateunfolding developments — particularly thosethat are uncontrollable — that may impact theirorganisation’s value and growth objectives. Thisreport — our13th annual edition— containsinsights from1,215 board members andC-suite executivesaround the world regardingtheir perspectives on the top risks they seeon the horizon for both thenear-term(two tothree years ahead) and thelong-term(a decadelater, 2035). perspectives through an online surveyconducted between mid-November 2024(following the U.S. presidential election) andmid-December 2024. In addition to providinghighlights about top risks on the minds ofthese executives for the full sample, thisreport provides insights about how risk viewsdiffer across organisations of different sizes,industries, geographic regions and types ofownership structure (public, private, non-profitand government) as well as different types ofrespondents (board members, CEOs, CFOs, etc.). Changes to this year’s study Going into this year’s survey, we performed a comprehensive reviewof feedback provided by respondents from past years as well as fromboard and C-suite leaders who consistently review the results of ourannual study. Based on this feedback, we decided to make severalchanges to improve, simplify and shorten our survey: •New short-term time horizon —We’ve shifted the near-term outlookfrom one year to two to three years, based on empirical evidence thatmore leaders view that time horizon as more relevant to their decision-making than the next 12 months. •New short-term ratings scale —We have changed the near-term riskrating scale from 10 points to a five-point Likert scale. Board members and senior executives usethe key findings in our annualExecutivePerspectives on Top Risks Surveyreportsto benchmark their organisation’s risksagainst those on the minds of other leaders.It is our hope that this report will providehelpful perspectives that can generate fruitfuldialogue and discussion among boards andC-suites as well as validate risk perceptions asthey ponder emerging issues. •New format for 10-year outlook —Rather than have respondents rate eachof our 32 risk issues for the long-term horizon, we asked them to select thetwo most significant long-term concerns per risk category (macroeconomic,strategic, operational). The report contains detailed analyses of howboards of directors and C-suite executivesrate the impact of 32 specific risks acrossthree dimensions:macroeconomic, strategicandoperational. Executives shared their •Updated list of risk issues —We added several new risk issues that addresspressing challenges (such as AI-related concerns), dropped low-scoring risksfrom prior years, and reduced the length and detail of the descriptions. Executive summary The results of our latest Executive Perspectives on Top Risks Survey reveal a number of broad,global themes that are influencing the near-term outlook of board members and executives. 10 Third-party risks07 Talent and labouravailability04 In addition, none of the risks in the table scoredhighly when this year’s survey respondents wereasked to select the top macroeconomic, strategic andoperational risks looking out 10 years. organisation’s culture, as noted in the table below thatshows the ranking of these culture-related concerns hasbeen declining over the past few years. Business leaders believe their organisationsare battle-tested and better prepared formanaging change. Board members and executives generally feel more positiveabout their organisation’s resilience, agility and preparednessto deal with crises and changes in the market. Their viewreflects a marked improvement from our survey results inprior years. In the past several years, organisations haveexperienced a global pandemic (and resulting supplychain disruptions and workplace challenges), agrowing onslaught of cyber attacks, exponentialadvancements in emerging technologies like AI, and anincreasingly volatile geopolitical climate fraught withconflicts, among other challenges. The lessons learnedfrom enduring these challenges appear to have madeleaders feel more confident in their ability to addressemerging issues and have led them to believe theyhave better prepared their organisations to recognise,embrace, communicate and adapt to gradual — as wellas sudden — change than in years past. To illustrate, one of the top 10 near-term risks