经济月报（2023年2月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN Global: Less gloomy outlook, but still see signs of a slowdown China Revenge spendingwould be limited bywealth effect;production is resuming and and would ease globalsupply chain disruptions.Reopening is unlikely to cause a surge in bothdomestic and global inflation. EuropeEven if recession risks ease, we expect 2023 growth to be much weaker thanlast year.Given still-high core inflation, another50bps rate hike would be on the cardsat the next ECB meeting in March. US Japan Expect more rate hikes given lowerrisk of recession.But the rate hike cycle might end bythe middle of the year amid signs oflanding. Larger drops in savings and realincome have raised concernsabout consumption recovery.There could be a gradualunwinding of ultra-loosemonetary policy once Kuroda’ssuccessor takes office in April. “GlobaleconomytoslowfurtheramidsignsofresilienceandChinare-opening;thefightagainstinflationisstartingtopayoff,”theIMFsaid Chinareopeningwouldsupportdemandforservicesratherthangoods;easingglobalsupplydisruptionscouldgiveatemporaryboosttomanufacturingproduction US:Expectmoreratehikesgivenlowerriskofrecessionbuttheratehikecyclemightendbythemiddleoftheyearamidsignsoflanding KrungsriResearch’sview FedChairPowellhassuggested“acouple”moreratehikes”givenlowerriskofrecessionamidasurprisinglytightlabormarketandstrongerservicessector.Latestemploymentindicatorssurprisedontheupside,withnon-farmpayrollsrisingby517,000inJanuary(highestsinceJuly2022),unemploymentdroppingtoa53-yearlowof3.4%,andnewjobopeningsreaching11.0minDecember.ISMServicesdatasurgedto55.2inJanuaryfrom49.2inDecember. However,thecurrentrakehikecyclecouldendbymid-yearforthefollowingreasons: (i)FedChairPowellhasrecentlysaid“thedisinflationprocesshasbegun”andthattheFedhasthetoolsnecessarytocoaxinflationdowntothe2%target. (ii)Pricepressureiseasing.JanuaryConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)roseby6.4%YoY,thesmallestrisesinceOctober2021andcoreinflationeasedfora4thstraightmonthto5.6%,thelowestsinceDecember2021.CorePCEpriceindex,theFed’spreferredinflationgauge,felltoanoverone-yearlowof4.4%inDecemberfrom4.7%inNovember. (iii)Ratehikesarestartingtohavevisibleimpactongrowth:(i)sharpdecelerationinconsumercreditgrowthfrom7.1%YoYinNovemberto2.9%inDecember;(ii)despitestrongheadlineemploymentnumbers,itscomponentsseemcautiouswithpart-timejobsgrowingfasterthanfull-timejobs;and(iii)excludingtradeandinventories,4Q22domesticdemandgrowthhaddeceleratedto0.2%from1.1%in3Q22.AlthoughtheIMFraisedits2023outlookforUSgrowthrecentlyfrom1.0%to1.4%,thatisbelow2.1%for2022and5.9%in2021. WeexpectmoreratehikesinMarchandMaytotaketerminalFedfundsrateto5.00-5.25%.Thatwouldstayfortherestof2023tocoaxinflationdowntothetargetinasustainablemanner. expect2023growthtobemuchweakerthanlastyear KrungsriResearch’sview PositiveGDPgrowthin4Q22isshuttingthedoortoasevererecessioninearly2023asharddataremainsurprisinglyresilient,withtheenergycrisishavingamilder-than-expectedimpactbecauseofawarmerwinter,generousgovernmentsupport,andtherecentdropingasprices.Thoseforcescouldpreventtheeurozoneeconomyfromfallingintoasevererecessionbutareinsufficienttotriggermeaningfuleconomicgrowthin2023.Thereisstilladragfromtightermonetarypolicyin1Q23asstubbornunderlyinginflationandatightlabormarketwouldforcetheECBtocontinuetoraiseinterestratessteadilytodownpricestomanageablelevels. Despiteimprovementsinrecentmonths,indicatorsofprivateconsumption-whichaccountedfor55%ofEurozoneNominalGDPin2022–continuetoweaken:consumerconfidence(-11.3%YoYinJanuary2023)andretailsales(-2.8%YoYinDecember2022)remainlowcomparedtobefore.Inaddition,thehouseholdsavingsratehastumbledtoitspre-COVIDlevelofaround13%in3Q22fromitspeakof25.3%in2Q20,implyinglowerpurchasingpower.Amidfearsofstagflationandinterestratesstillhighatlevelsunseensincelate-2008,consumptionwillbeweakinthefirsthalfoftheyear.HeadlineInflationisexpectedtofallsharplythisyearbutcoreinflationhasyettoslowdownbecauseof:(i)astronglabormarket;and(ii)persistentwagegrowthandservicesinflation.Thiswouldpromptauthoritiestokeepinterestrateshightofightinflationandthetrade-offcouldbeastagnanteconomyonthehorizon.Followingthe50bpsincreaseannouncedatFebruary’smeeting,whichtookthepolicyrateto2.5%,theEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)isindicatingthatintheirongoingstrugglestobringinflationbackdownto2%,another50bpsrisewillbeonthecardsattheirnextmeetinginMarch,possiblywithquantitativetightening(QT)inthemiddleoftheyear.Tofillupthepictures,weexpecttheECB’spolicyratetorisetoapeakof3.5%byMay2023andstayatthatlevelfortherestoftheyear. China:Revengespendingwouldbelimitedbywealtheffect;productionisresumingandwillcontinuetoeaseglobalsupplychaindisruptions KrungsriResearch’sview DespitearesurgenceinCovid-19casessinceChinalifteditsZero-CovidpolicyinDecember,travelbetweenmajorcitieshasrecovered,someexceedingpre-pandemiclevels.Weexpectconsumerspendingtorecovergraduallyin1Q23andacceleratein2Q23asnewcaseshavedroppedsharplyinFebruary.However,despite34.3%savingsratelastyearand$827billionthree-yearsavin