市场展望——2024年11月7日

Market Perspectives November 7, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA’s corn and soybean crop estimates aren’t likely to change much in Friday’s Crop ProductionReport. Barring any supply-side surprises, adjustments to usage forecasts will impact changes to 2024-25 ending stocks. USDA’s global wheat production forecasts might draw the most attention givendeclining private crop forecasts for several countries. Early trade estimates are for corn production to drop by 15 – 25 million bushels, although the rangefrom analysts is for a drop of 125 million bushels to an increase of 100 million bushels. U.S. corn endingstocks are expected to drop by 50 million bushels, but with the range of analysts expectations of down175 million bushels to an increase of 70 million bushels. The early soybean estimates are for production to be the same as the October estimate, at 4.557 billionbushels, although the range in analyst estimates ranges from 4.495 billion bushels to 4.640 billionbushels. Soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to decline by an average of18 million bushels, falling to 532 million bushels. The range of analyst estimates is for ending stocks of475 million bushels to 585 million bushels. Expectations for global corn carryover is a decline to 305.7 mmt from 306.52 mmt in the October report.Global soybean ending stocks are expected to decline by 0.6 mmt, falling to 134.06 mmt compared to134.65 mmt in the October report. World wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to decline by 0.93 mmt in the November reportwith ending stocks for 2024/25 at 256.79 mmt versus 257.72 mmt in the October report. The U.S. corn and soybean harvest is nearly complete. U.S. producers have harvested more than 94% ofsoybeans and 91% of corn. Generally wet weather across much of the Midwest in the past week hasdelayed the finish of harvest for a few days but has been very welcome for the winter wheat crop,pastures, and for cover crops that have been planted following corn and soybean harvest. Corn harvestis 16 points ahead of the 5-year average. Soybean harvest is nearly done except for North Carolina whichis at 43% harvested versus 44% normally. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut short-term interest rates by another quarter point at their meeting onThursday. Real U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% rate during the summer months and with inflation near theFed’s target of 2%, the combination should support continued economic growth. Some macro marketconcerns are the potential continuation of deficit spending by the U.S. government. President-electTrump has outlined some potential tax cuts and othe