2025年4月亚洲发展展望

TRADE UNCERTAINTY CHALLENGESRESILIENCE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ASIAN DEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK APRIL 2025 TRADE UNCERTAINTY CHALLENGESRESILIENCE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-275-8 (print); 978-92-9277-276-5 (PDF); 978-92-9277-277-2 (e-book)ISSN 0117-0481 (print), 1996-725X (PDF)Publication Stock No. FLS250135-3DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS250135-3 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars.ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Korea” and “South Korea”as the Republic of Korea; “Russia” as the Russian Federation; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork rendered by Katrina Cuenca licensed exclusively to ADB © 2025 “Seraph” Katrina Cuenca. All RightsReserved. ForewordAcknowledgmentsDefinitions and AssumptionsAbbreviations ADO April 2025—Highlights Trade Uncertainty Challenges Resilience in Asia and the Pacific Developing Asia’s Growth Momentum Eases as PRC Consumption Softens4A Challenging Outlook Amid Heightened Trade Uncertainty24Risks Mount as Tariffs Escalate38Annex: Policy Uncertainties Cloud Growth Outlook Amid Looming Tariffs43 Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia 53 Caucasus and Central AsiaArmenia AzerbaijanGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyz RepublicTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan East AsiaPeople’s Republic of ChinaHong Kong, ChinaRepublic of KoreaMongoliaTaipei,China South AsiaAfghanistan BangladeshBhutanIndiaMaldivesNepalPakistanSri Lanka Southeast Asia Brunei DarussalamCambodiaIndonesiaLao People’s Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandTimor-LesteViet Nam The Pacific FijiPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsVanuatuCentral Pacific EconomiesNorth Pacific EconomiesSouth Pacific Economies Statistical Appendix FOREWORD Asia and the Pacific stands at a critical juncture. The forecasts in this report, finalized before new tariffs wereannounced in early April, show the region’s growth declining slightly this year and next. The region now faces acomplex economic landscape, with increasing trade tensions, policy shifts, and geopolitical conflict. This edition of theAsian Development Outlookhighlights how developing Asia has remained resilient throughgrowing trade uncertainty and provides insights into the risks that may impact its outlook, some of which are nowmaterializing. Economic momentum is uneven across economies, while external shocks continue to test the region, even as it mustovercome key development issues. In some economies, high debt, inflationary pressures, and fiscal constraints areputting social spending at risk, potentially slowing progress in poverty reduction. While food inflation has moderatedin Asia and the Pacific, the temporary spike in 2024 due to adverse weather and supply disruptions highlightedthe ongoing fragility of food systems across the region. Perhaps most important, fragmentation of global trade andrising protectioni