2025年12月亚洲发展展望：增长趋稳但不确定性犹存

D E C E M B E R2 0 2 5 GROWTH STEADIES BUTUNCERTAINTY LINGERS HIGHLIGHTS „The 2025 growth forecast for economies in developing Asia and the Pacific (developing Asia) is raised by 0.3 percentagepoints from September, to 5.1%. The upgrade is due to stronger-than-expected growth in India, driven by robust domestic „The 2026 growth forecast is also revised up by 0.1 percentage points, on reduced trade uncertainty following the conclusionof several trade agreements. However, regional growth is expected to slow to 4.6% next year, dented by higher US tariffs and „Robust external demand, particularly for electronics-related products, prompted upward revisions to growth projections „Growth in South Asia is now forecast at 6.5% in 2025, up by 0.6 percentage points, on an improved outlook for India.The 2026 projection is unchanged at 6.0%. „Southeast Asia’s growth projections are also revised up, to 4.5% in 2025—reflecting a strong third-quarter performancein Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Viet Nam—and to 4.4% in 2026, on an improved external environment and „Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central Asia are upgraded to 5.8% in 2025 and to 5.0% in 2026, supported bystrong public investment, rising remittances, robust domestic demand, and stable macroeconomic conditions. Growth „Inflation in developing Asia is expected to ease further to 1.6% in 2025, down from 1.7% projected in September, mainlyreflecting lower-than-expected food inflation in India. The 2026 inflation forecast remains unchanged at 2.1%. „Renewed tariff tensions and trade policy uncertainty, and higher financial market volatility, remain key risks. Geopoliticalpressures and weakness in the People’s Republic of China’s property market could also weigh on the region’s growth outlook. The recent developments section was written by Melanie Quintos, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Ed Kieran Reyes, Shiela Camingue-Romance, PatrickJaime Simba, and Mai Lin Villaruel under the guidance of Abdul Abiad, John Beirne, and Matteo Lanzafame of the Economic Research and DevelopmentImpact Department (ERDI). The Asian Development Bank Regional Economic Outlook Task Force led the preparation of the revised subregional outlook.The task force is chaired by ERDI and includes representatives of the Central and West Asia Department, East Asia Department, Pacific Department,South Asia Department, and Southeast Asia Department. ADB placed its regular assistance to Afghanistan on hold effective 15 August 2021. Effective1 February 2021, ADB placed a temporary hold on sovereign project disbursements and new contracts in Myanmar. The box on recent US tariff cuts waswritten by Jules Hugot and Ed Kieran Reyes of ERDI. The box on global assumptions was written by John Beirne, Gabriele Ciminelli, Jaqueson Galimberti, 2ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK DECEMBER 2025 Recent Developments Economic growth in developing Asia remains resilient,underpinned by solid consumption and continued exportstrength.Except for India, where growth surprised on the upside,third quarter (Q3) developments in the region were in line withprojections in Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September2025. Resilient consumption supported domestic demand evenas investment weakened, weighed down by inventory destockingand persistent, albeit moderating, trade uncertainty. Exportsremained robust, bolstered by strong demand for electronics andsemiconductors and export market diversification, which helped tomitigate the impact of higher United States (US) tariffs. Inflation inthe region continued to ease, primarily as food prices fell. Reflectingthese developments, growth forecasts for developing Asia are raisedby 0.3 percentage points to 5.1% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage Growth in developing Asia stabilized at 5.4% in Q3 2025,unchanged from the first half (H1), as a slowdown in thePRC was offset by acceleration in India.External headwindsshaped economic activity andeconomy-specific drivers led tosome divergence (Figure 1).In the PRC, growth deceleratedless than anticipated in ADO September 2025, to 4.8% from5.3% in H1. Weak domestic demand, ongoing property marketstrains, and scaling back of trade-in incentives in some provinces,weighed on growth. In contrast, exports proved stronger thanexpected, supported by export market diversification. Growth inIndia exceeded expectations asgross domestic product (GDP)expanded by 8.2% in the second quarter of the current fiscalyear (July to September 2025), the fastest growth in 6 quarters, Growth remained steady in developing Asia in Q3, as quicker expansions in India and the rest of the region offset the moderation in the PRC. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK DECEMBER 20253 partly offset external tailwinds in several economies. Meanwhile,GDP growth slowed in Singapore, as higher imports offsetexport gains, and in Thailand, where consumption eased amidreduced spending on services. GDP growth slowed to 4.0% in thePhilippines—the lowest rate since Q1 2021—as stricter fiscal and