2025年9月亚洲发展展望：随着新的全球贸易环境的形成，增长放缓（英）

GROWTH SLOWS AS A NEW GLOBALTRADE ENVIRONMENT TAKES SHAPE ASIAN DEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 2025 GROWTH SLOWS AS A NEW GLOBALTRADE ENVIRONMENT TAKES SHAPE Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-448-6 (print); 978-92-9277-449-3 (PDF); 978-92-9277-450-9 (e-book)ISSN 0117-0481 (print), 1996-725X (PDF)Publication Stock No. FLS250385-3DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS250385-3 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars, “¥” refers to yen, “A$” refers to Australian dollars, “AF” refers toafghanis, “B” refers to baht, “CNY” refers to yuan, “K” refers to kina, “NZ$” refers to New Zealand dollars, “RM” refers toringgit, “SI$” refers to Solomon Islands dollars, “TJS” refers to somoni, “Tk” refers to taka, and “VND” refers to dong.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China, “USA” as the United States, and “Bombay” as Mumbai. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork rendered by Katrina Cuenca licensed exclusively to ADB © 2025 “Seraph” Katrina Cuenca. All RightsReserved. ForewordAcknowledgmentsDefinitions and AssumptionsAbbreviations vii ADO September 2025—Highlights Growth Slows as a New Global Trade Environment Takes Shape Growth Benefited from Export Front-loading as Price Pressures Continued to Subside4Growth Slows on Trade Headwinds29Risks to the Outlook Still Tilt to the Downside39Annex: Forecasts Downgraded on Higher US Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty41 Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies:Global Factors and the Role of Fundamentals 51 The Literature on Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies55Evolving Capital Flow Dynamics in Emerging Market Economies59Sensitivity of Emerging Market Capital Inflows to Global Factors70and the Role of Domestic FundamentalsConclusions and Policy Implications75Technical Appendix77References92 Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia 97 Caucasus and Central AsiaEast AsiaSouth AsiaSoutheast AsiaThe Pacific Statistical Appendix 197 FOREWORD Asia and the Pacific is navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape marked by rising trade barriers andpersistent policy uncertainty. Growth momentum has become uneven, with some economies facing sharply highertariffs while others benefit from trade diversification and shifting supply chains. These forces highlight the urgency ofcoordinated policy action at both national and regional levels. Despite these headwinds and the downward revisions to growth forecasts from April presented in this report, theregion continues to demonstrate resilience. Inflation is moderating, supported by easing food and energy prices andprudent monetary policy. Robust domestic demand and strong performance in high-technology sectors show thatour economies can grow under pressure. Yet the uneven impact of current disruptions makes clear that one-size-fits-all approaches will not work. Tailored domestic measures, combined with deeper regional cooperation, are criticalto sustaining growth