随着美国人口增长放缓，我们需要重新设定对经济数据的预期（英）2025

Jed KolkoJuly 2025 US population growth has slowed sharply in the past 18 months, as theimmigration surge of the early 2020shas endedand the population continues toage. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with the growth of the labor force, andgrowth rates of output and consumption will fall even if per capita output andconsumption hold steady. The total US population is growing at an annualized rateof 0.5 percent, down from 1 percent in late 2023. I estimate the breakeven rate ofmonthly payroll growth in the jobs report needed to keep up with the labor forcehas fallen from 166,000 jobs in early 2024 to 86,000 jobs in June 2025. Jed Kolkois nonresidentsenior fellow at thePeterson Institute forInternational Economics.He is also a senior advisorto the JPMorganChaseInstitute. From 2022to 2024, he was UnderSecretary for EconomicAffairs at the USDepartment of Commerce. Accordingly, policymakers need to lower their targets and forecasts for keyeconomic data and put more weight on per capita and other population-invariantmeasures. Adjusting expectations in light of slower population growth is essentialfor setting monetary policy, determining whether the United States is in recession,and other data-driven decisions and interpretations. With slower populationgrowth, any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth, or outputgrowth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago. Population growth is not only slowing; it has also become more volatileand harder to estimate. It is likely that current population estimates for 2025that statistical agencies are incorporating into economic data are too high andwill be revised downward; current population estimates imply much higherimmigration in 2025 than is likely under current administration policy. Economicdata will need to be reinterpreted and revised in line with future adjustments topopulation estimates. THE MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT BREAKEVEN RATE HAS FALLEN FROM 166,000TO 86,000 JOBS SINCE THE START OF 2024 Payroll growth is perhaps the most closely watched monthly economic indicator.How do policymakers and investors decide whether the reported number—mostrecently an increase of 147,000 jobs in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employmentreport for June 2025—means the labor market is strengthening or weakening? A natural way to put the monthly jobs number in context is to comparecurrent job growth to recent or more distant history, such as the average fromthe previous year or from several years before the pandemic. But to drawconclusions about whether a given monthly payroll number is getting us closerto or further away from full employment, or whether it’s likely to push up wages,one needs to compare actual payroll growth to what’s needed to keep the labormarket in balance in light of population growth and changing demographics: Thisis the breakeven rate. Here’s a very simple way of calculating the breakeven rate. The adultpopulation is growing at roughly 200,000 people per month, according to thelatest Census population estimates.1Approximately 60 percent of adults areemployed. At this rate of population growth and employment, the US economyneeds to add 120,000 jobs per month to keep the employment rate steady.One year ago, the adult population was growing at 300,000 people per month,implying a breakeven rate of 300,000 * 60% = 180,000 jobs per month. Crucially, this simple calculation does not factor in the rapid and dramaticaging of the population.2The adult population is growing unevenly. The fastestgrowing age groups are 65 and older. Peak baby boomers born between 1957and 1961 are reaching the traditional retirement age of 65, when the likelihoodof being employed drops sharply: The employment-population ratio in 2024 was64 percent for 55–64-year-olds and 26 percent for 65–74-year-olds. The agingpopulation lowers the breakeven rate: Holding the adult population constant, apopulation with more retirees needs fewer jobs than the same total populationthat’s skewed more toward working-age adults. Thus, a better calculation of the breakeven rate accounts for the aging ofthe US population by combining the monthly estimated population for eachage group3with the employment-population ratio for each age group.4Unlikethe very simple calculation above, which implausibly keeps the overall adultemployment-population ratio steady at 60 percent, this better calculation keepsthe employment-population ratio steady within each age group but accounts forchanges in the population distribution across age groups.5 Then, it’s necessary to convert the change in the number of personsemployed, as measured in the household survey of the jobs report, to the changein nonfarm jobs, as measured in the payroll (or establishment) survey of thejobs report. This accounts forconceptual differences in how the two surveyscount jobs.6This has the practical effect of raising the current breakeven ratebecause a rising share of employed people hold multiple jobs. Finally, the seriesis