刚果民主共和国经济更新，2025年7月：重新评估税收激励措施——未能实现预期的增长和公平（英）2025

Falling Short of PromisedReassessing Tax Incentives:Public Disclosure Authorized DRC ECONOMIC UPDATEReassessing Tax Incentives: Falling Short © 2025 The International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment/THE WORLD BANK1818, H street NW, Washington, DC20433USAAll rights reserved ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The DRCEconomic Update (DRCEU)evaluates the recent growth performance and mac-roeconomic policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), thus providing a basisfor policy dialog with the Government and other stakeholders. The first section of theEconomic Update evaluates the drivers of growth and the macroeconomic framework. This Economic Update was prepared by a multidisciplinary team led by Cedric Deguenonvo(Senior Economist) under the guidance of Chadi Bou Habib (Lead Economist). The team in-cludes Moise Tshimenga Tshibangu (Economist), Aly Sanoh (Senior Economist), Sandra ElSaghir (Senior Economist), Rajiv Kumar (Senior Economist), Francisco Javier Arias Vazquez(Senior Economist), Sabrina Gilbert (Consultant) and Kaushiki Singh (Consultant). Paulin The report was prepared under the overall guidance and supervision of Albert Zeufack(Division Director), Hassan Zaman (Regional Practice Director), and Abha Prasad (Practice The team thanks Jean-Pascal Nganou (Program leader) for helpful comments and sug-gestions; and well as the staff from the Central Bank of Congo, the Ministry of Finance and Artificial Intelligence was used in the preparation of this report. It benefited from constructive comments from the following peer reviewers: Samer Matta(Senior Economist, EAWM2) and Violeta Vulovic (Senior Economist, EMFTX). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this DRCEU are those of WorldBank staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of The World For information about the World Bank and its activities in DRC, including e-copies of thispublication, please visit:https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc. AcknowledgmentsiAbbreviations and AcronymsviExecutive Summaryvii 1.1.1Global and regional trends11.1.2Growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC)21.1.3Impact of unbalanced growthon job creation61.1.4DRC’s external balance7 2.2Sectoral Composition and Policy Objectives26 2.3Estimates of the impact of tax expenditures28 2.3.1Distributional impact of VATtax expenditures282.3.2Tax holidays and effective corporatetaxation29 1.2Growth outlook18 Appendix 1:Data36Appendix 2:Major Tax ExpendituresAppendix 3:Details on Distributional Impactof VAT Expenditures List of Figures Figure 1:Global and regional GDP growth (in %), 2022–20271Figure 2:Real GDP growth (in %), DRC and SSA, 2010-20242Figure 3:Real GDP growth (in %), various SSA countries, 2022-20243Figure 4:Non-Resources GDP growth (in %), DRC and SSA, 2010-2024 4Figure 5:Poverty rates and GDP per capita (in % and constant local currency units), 2012-20274Figure 6:Demand side contribution to GDP growth (in percentage points of GDP), 2010-20245Figure 7:Demand contribution to growth (in %), 2010-20245Figure 8:Growth in value-added by sector (in %), 20246Figure 9:Supply side contribution to growth (in percentage points of GDP), 2010-20246Figure 10:GDP growth and employment growth (in %), 2010-20236Figure 11:Elasticity of employment to output growth, by sub-sector, 2010-20236Figure 12:Exports of copper, cobalt, gold, and other exports (in % GDP), 2018-237Figure 13:International prices of copper, gold, cobalt, and oil (in USD per unit)7Figure 14:Share of DRC exports in world exports (in %), 1994-20248Figure 15:Imports of energy, intermediate goods, and consumption goods (in % GDP), 2018-248Figure 16:Current account deficit and components (in % GDP), 2018-24 8Figure 17:Foreign direct investment (% GDP), 2018-249Figure 18:Official reserves (USD millions and weeks of imports), 2015-249Figure 19:Revenue, total and by component (in % GDP), 2018-2410 List of Tables Table1:Public debt and debt service (% GDP, unless otherwise indicated), 2020-202413Table 2:EATR and METR for investment in various assets under different financing scenarios31Table 3:Implicit excise rate on consumption of select alcoholic products in DRC (in %)32Table 4:Selected macro indicators, 2022-202736 List of Boxes Box 1:Fuel price subsidies are fiscally costly, but the pace of reforms has been uneven11Box 2:Public financial management challenges and reforms 12Box 3:De-dollarization progress in DRC14Box 4:Amendment 2025 Budget19Box 5:Tax incentives in the amended budget 202527 ABBREVIATIONSAND ACRONYMS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Section 1: The State of the Economy and Outlook i.Despite global challenges that have limitedworld economic growth in 2024, Sub-SaharanAfrica (SSA) experienced positive growth.In2024, global economic growth held steady at 2.8percent (GEP, 2025), constrained by restrictivemonetary policies and sluggish trade. Sub-Sa-haran Africa (SSA), however, experienced an in-crease in growth to 3.5 percent, fueled by publicinvestment and c