国内市场整合与区域增长：以墨西哥为例

Domestic MarketIntegration and RegionalGrowth: The Case of Mexico Felipe J. Fonseca, Samir Jahan, Irving Llamosas‐Rosas,Tomohide Mineyama, Erick Rangel‐González, and Hugo Tuesta WP/25/21 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JAN IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Domestic Market Integration and Regional Growth: The Case of MexicoPrepared byFelipe J. Fonseca,Samir Jahan,Irving Llamosas‐Rosas,Tomohide Mineyama,ErickRangel‐Gonzalez, andHugo Tuesta Authorized for distribution byBikas JoshiJanuary 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of theBanco deMéxicoorthe IMF, its ExecutiveBoard, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Per capita growth of the Mexican economy has lagged behind G20 peers in past decades withnotable disparities between the north and south. In this paper, we build on the income convergence literatureby examining the impact of domestic market integration on regional growth. To this end, we incorporate insightsfrom the Law of One Price and construct a novel measure of the strength of domestic market integration frommicro-level price data. We find that domestic market integration is strongly associated with regional growth andits spillovers, along with other structural factors such as human capital and infrastructure. Our result alsoindicates thatneighboring states’ income level and their integration into the national economy is positivelycorrelated with a state’s growth, suggesting cross-state spillover effects and regional clustering. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Fonseca, Felipe J., Samir Jahan, Irving Llamosas‐Rosas, Tomohide Mineyama,Erick Rangel‐Gonzalez, and Hugo Tuesta. (2025)“Understanding Structural Impediments to RegionalConvergence in Mexico.”IMF Working Papers WP/25/21. Domestic Market Integration andRegional Growth:The Case of Mexico Prepared byFelipe J. Fonseca, Samir Jahan,Irving Llamosas‐Rosas,Tomohide Mineyama, Erick Rangel‐Gonzalez, and Hugo Tuesta Contents Glossary...............................................................................................................................................................3Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................4Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................5Literature Review................................................................................................................................................7Data and Stylized Facts....................................................................................................................................10Methodology......................................................................................................................................................13Results...............................................................................................................................................................15Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................................233Annex I. Additional Figures and Tables..........................................................................................................24AnnexII. Application of the Spatial Externalities (SLX) Model.....................................................................28References.........................................................................................................................................................29 Glossary ADFAugmented Dickey-FullerLOOPLaw of One PriceLLCLevin, Liu, and ChuINEGINational Institute of Statistics and GeographyENOENational Survey of Occupation and EmploymentBanxicoBanco de MexicoCONAPONational Population CouncilSNSPSecretariat of the National Public SecuritySystemINPCÍndice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor Executive Summary Per capita growth of the Mexican economy has lagged behind G20 peers in past decades with notabledisparities between theNorth andtheSouth. Drawing on the Law of One Price (LOOP) literature,weconsiderhow regional market integration could affect regional growth.We do thisbyfirstestimatingthe half-livesofshocks tothe differentials between state-level average prices and the national average-in effect—the strengthof the LOOP at the state-level—and thenusing these estimates in a workhorse neoclassical conditionalconve