固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 ThenewAMMMK 30s widened1bpfrom RO this morning.BABAs/TENCNTs/MEITUAs tightened 1-2bps. TOPTBs tightened 5bps.VNKRLE 25-29s were up another 0.4-1.8pts. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Chinese properties:Except CHIOLI, the contracted sales of all developersunder our radar decreased yoy in 2024. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy: In a moderate recovery. CMBI expects China’s GDPgrowth to decelerate from 5% in 1H25 to 4.5% in 2H25 with the full-yeargrowth at 4.7%. China might launch additional policy stimulus in 2H25.Seebelow for comments from CMBI economic research. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk Last Friday, AMMMK priced a USD300mn 5-yr bond at CT5+78. The recentnew HKAA 30s/35s widened 1-2bps. BOCAVI 28s tightened 2bps. KHFC30s/EIBKOR 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. In Chinese IGs, HAOHUA28-30s widened 2-3bps on offshore accounts selling. BABA/TENCNT 30-31swere 1-2bps wider while MEITUA 28-30s tightened 2-3bps. In financials,CFAMCI 25s/26s/27s/30s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher (5-13bps tighter).Seeour comments on CFAMCI's positive profit alert on 17 Jan’25.CCAMCL/ORIEAS30s also tightened 1-2bps.Bank T2s were mixed.NANYAN 34s tightened 2bps on better buying from onshore accounts.BNKEA 27s/32s widened 1-3bps on AM selling. In EU AT1s, there were two-way interests among PBs/AMs. The recent new BBVASM 7.75/STANLN7.625 Perps were up 0.1-0.2pt. BNP 8/LLOYDS 8 Perps were 0.2-0.5pthigher. Insurance hybrids were under better buying from some RM reloadingrisks. DAIL Perp/SUMILF Perp/MYLIFE 54s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher.In HK, NWDEVL Perps/27-31s dropped another 0.5-1.3pts, closed 2.7-8.9ptslower WoW. In Chinese properties, Moody’s downgraded Vanke by two-notches to B3 from B1. Media reported Vanke has prepared sufficient cashto repay the onshore bonds of RMB3bn due on 27 Jan‘25. VNKRLE 25-29srebounded 1.3-4.3pts, closed 14.8-17.1pts lower YTD. LNGFOR 27-32swere up 0.2-0.8pt, closed 3.9-4.4pts lower WoW. COGO/DALWAN 26s wereup 0.3pt. CHJMAO 26s/29s closed unchanged to 0.2pt higher amid mixedflows. Outside properties, EHICAR 26-27s increased 0.5-0.6pt, closed 2.9-3.4pts higher WoW. WESCHI 26s decreased 1.8pts, closed2.5pts lowerWoW. In India, UPLLIN Perp rose another 0.7pt. In LGFVs, HRINT priced a USD290mn 3-yr bond at par to yield 6.28%. Wesaw tactical investors were gradually raising selling targets especially in USDpapers amidthe strong buying from RMs. HNYUZI/WUXIND 26s were 0.2pthigher. LIANYU 25s/SXUCI 26s were up 0.1pt. There were two-way interestson CNH names such as NGNGHs/JNCDCHs/SDGAOCs. In SOE perps,CHSCOI 3.4/COFCHK 3.1 Perps were up 0.2pt. MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+1.00%), Dow (+0.78%) and Nasdaq (+1.51%) were strongon last Friday.The Dec’24 USNonfarm Payroll was +256k,higher than the expectation of +164k. The Dec’24 unemployment rate was 4.1%,lower than the expectation of 4.2%.China’s 1/5yr LPR are unchanged at 3.1%/3.6%.UST yield moved higheron last Friday, 2/5/10/30 yield reached 4.27%/4.42%/4.61%/4.84%. DeskAnalystComments分析员市场观点 Chinese properties: Except CHIOLI, the contracted sales of all developers under our radar decreasedyoy in 2024 InDec’24, 32 developers under our radar reported contracted sales totaled RMB220.5bn, decreased 9.8% yoyfrom RMB244.5bn in Dec’23. 10 out of 32 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales in Dec’24,compared to 9 developers with yoy increase in Nov’24. The new home prices in 70 largest cities down 0.08% mom in Dec’24 from Nov’24, the smallest decline sinceJun’23. Dec’24 is also the fourth straight month in which the decline in new home prices has narrowed comparedwith the previous month. On mombasis, the new home prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 0.5% and 0.2%,respectively in Dec’24; while the new home prices in Beijing and Guangzhou both dropped 0.1%. In 12M24, the cumulative contracted sales of 32 developers dropped 30.9% yoy to RMB2,251.0bn.ExceptCHIOLI with 0.3% yoy increase in cumulative contracted sales in 12M24, all the remaining 31 developers underour radar posted yoy decrease. GRNCH (RMB256.4bn) was also a better performer with a modest yoycontracted sales decline of 8%. The distressed developers continued to underperform. The contracted sales ofCOGARD (RMB47.2bn), AGILE (RMB15.5bn) and LOGPH (RMB8.4bn) dropped 73%, 66% and 63% yoy in12M24, respectively. During2024, Chinese government attempted to stimulate the property market by relaxing the HPR, as well asreducing the mortgage rates and nationwide minimum down payment ratio. The CEWC in Dec’24 signaledmore forceful measures to support the property market, including urban village’s renovation and rehabilitationofdilapidated houses.Among the tier-1 cities,Guangzhou had cancelled all purchase restrictions forGuangzhou residents and non-Guangzhou families by Sep’24. We expect further relaxat