Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [November5th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●A‐ShareStrategySpecial:ProfitGrowthHitsBottomAgain ●Food&BeverageSector:SpecialReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:MajorAssetsAllocationUpdate ●QuantitativeReport:Multi‐factorLarge/Small‐capRotationModel ●GenrixBiopharma(688443):OW,TP@RMB40.07 ●HomeAppliancesSector:UpdateReport ●OceanShippingSector:UpdateReport ●Bluetrum(688332):OW,TP@RMB98.00↑ SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations A‐ShareStrategySpecial:ProfitGrowthHitsBottomAgain Thenetprofitgrowthhitbottomagainduetothedeclineofgrossmarginandturnoverratio.In2024Q1~Q3,thetotalnetprofitgrowthofallA‐shares(excludingfinancialandpetrochemicalsectors)fellto‐8.0%yoy(ofwhich,‐10.8%yoyin2024Q3),andtherevenuegrowthfellto‐1.6%yoy.In2024Q1~Q3,thetotalnetprofitgrowthofallA‐shareswas‐0.6%yoy(ofwhich,+3.5%yoyin2024Q3).Suchdiscrepancywasmainlybecauseofthefastrecoveryofthefinancialsector.Intermsofincomestatement,grossmarginwentdown,andoverheadsgrowthsloweddownbutwasstillabovezero,resultinginfasteryoydecreaseofnetprofit.ROE‐TTMfellby0.15pctqoq,mainlybecauseoffasteryoydeclineofnetprofitmarginandturnoverratio.Tobespecific,therecoverysloweddown,withtheslowdownofbothaccountreceivableturnoverandinventoryturnover. InvestmentStyle:Large‐capstocksachievedbetterbusinessresults;financialsectorrealizedfastprofitrecovery;consumersectorremainedresilient.(1)ProfitGrowth:The2024Q3quarterlyprofitgrowthofCSI300was+8.7%yoy,butSMEstockssufferedfastdeclineofprofitgrowth.Financialsectorrealizedfastrecovery;consumersectorremainedresilient;growthsectorwasstillunderpressure;cyclicalsectorranintonegativegrowth.(2)DuPontDecomposition:Drivenbytheriseofnetprofitmargin,theROEoflarge‐capstocksleveledoffearlierthanothers.Incomparison,medium‐capstockssufferedthebiggestdeclineofROE,duetotheslowdownofturnoverratio.ConsumersectorsawalittleincreaseofROEthankstothereboundofgrossmargin.Cyclicalsector’sinventoryturnoverhasbottomedout.Growthsectorwasunderthepressurefrombothturnoverratioandnetprofitmargin,anditsmainsupportfactorwastheriseofequitymultiplier. IndustryProfits:Thestructuralprofitgrowthcontinued,butwithmuchweakermomentumofthehigh‐prosperitysectors.Thesectorprofitgrowthstructurein2024Q3remainedthesameasthatin2024H1,buttheprofitgrowthratesofthepreviousbestperformersallsloweddown.(1)CyclicalSector:Domesticdemandandrealestateindustrychainremainedweak,andtheferrousindustrychainwasunderheavierpressure.Andthepreviousfast‐growingnaturalresourcesanddownstreampan‐publicutilitiessectorsalsosloweddown.Ofnaturalresourcessector,petrochemicalturnedintopositiveprofitgrowth,butnonferrousmetals,especiallynoblemetals,realizedfastprofitgrowthasaresultofinterestratecutandgeopoliticalconflicts.Thequarterlyprofitgrowthofpublicutilitiessectorturnedintonegative.Theinventoryturnoverratiosofmostupstreamandmidstreamcyclicalindustriesbottomedout.(2)Science‐techSector:TMThardwareandmachineryremainedresilient,andtheAIindustry‐relatedTMTequipment(photoelectric,semiconductor,electroniccomponents,telecomequipmentandcomputerequipment)managedtosustainfastprofitgrowth,buttheprofitgrowthratesofmediaandcomputersloweddown.Theperformancesofscience‐techmanufacturingindustriesweremixed.Thenegativegrowthofpowerequipment&alternativeenergydidnotdeteriorate,andbatteryindustrywasbetteroffthanphotovoltaicindustry.Shipbuildingindustrysloweddownquickly;aerospaceandmilitaryelectronicindustrieswereunderheavy pressure;constructionmachineryindustryrealizedfasterprofitgrowth.Onthewhole,ratherthantherecoveryofproductprices,therecoveryofsalesvolumethankstofasterinventoryturnover,wasthesaviorofthescience‐techindustry.(3)ConsumerSector:agricultureandsocialservicesrealizedfastgrowth,whilediscretionaryconsumergoodsstillcountedongovernmentsubsidiestohomeappliancereplacementpurchase.Automobileandwhitegoodsremainedresilient,whileliquorhasbeenslumpingforthepastthreequartersinarow.Anyway,onthewhole,massconsumerproductsremainedresilience.Thenetprofitmarginsofmostconsumergoodsrebounded;(4)FinancialSector:Insuranceindustryrealizedfastprofitgrowth,thankstotheincreaseofinvestmentreturnandthechangeofaccountingstandards.Bankingindustrysustainedstablegrowth. CashFlow:Science‐techindustryhasbecomemorecautiousinfinancing,andtheoperatingcashflowofmachinery,petrochemical,environmentalprotection,publicutilitiesandnon‐bankfinanceimproved.(1)CyclicalSector:Thecashflowgrowthratesamidcyclicalindustrieswere:downstream>upstream>midstream.Publicutilities,environmentalprotection,chemicalandpetrochemicalrealizedfastgrowth,whileconstruction,coal,steel,buildingmaterialsandtransportationweretheindustriesofthebiggestnegativegrowth.Theoverallcapitalexpendituresofcyclicalsectorshrank.(2)Science‐techSector:Mostscience‐techbusinessesrecordedcontinuedcontractionofthecashflowfromfinancingactivities,indicatingmorecautiousfinancingactivitiesofthescience‐t