Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [July22nd,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:BlueChipsOrNot ●LiquorIndustry(Overseas):SpecialReport ●ElectronicComponentSector:UpdateReport ●FundMarket:SpecialReport LatestReports ●BrightLaserTech(688333):OW,TP@RMB86.43↓ ●PingAnInsurance(601318):OW,TP@RMB58.98 ●CFMotorpower(603129):OW,TP@RMB189.13 ●HuaqinTech(688281):OW,TP@RMB135.44 ●Tongkun(601233):OW,TP@RMB17.70↓ ●TSMC(TSM.US):OW,TP@USD208.00 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:UpdateReport Atthe3rdPlenarySessionofthe20thCPCCentralCommitteewasheldinBeijingfromJuly15to18,theCommitteereviewedandpassedthe“DecisionoftheCPCCentralCommitteeonFurtherComprehensivelyDeepeningReformsandPromotingChinese‐styleModernization”.Fromthecontentofthecommuniqué,thebiggestgoalofthisSessionisofChinese‐stylemodernization,whichcanbeconsideredasthecontinuationanddeepeningofthedecisionsmadeatthe3rdPlenarySessionofthe18thCPCCentralCommittee.Thistime,theCommitteehighlightsthe“fairness’ofeconomicsystemreform,emphasizesonmaintainingmarketorderandmakingupformarketfailures.High‐qualitydevelopmentandscientificandtechnologicalinnovationsarethetoppriorities.Itisanticipatedthatall‐aroundreformsmayenhancenationalinnovationability.Meanwhile,nationalsecurityisanotherhighlightedthemeofthisSession. A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:BlueChipsOrNot Sidewaycorrectionsmaycontinueforsometime.AswehadanticipatedinearlyJuly,STAR500andCSI300reboundedby8.5%and4.5%fromthebottom.However,therewasnobigincreaseofmarketturnover,andlarge‐capblue‐shipstocksfaroutperformedsmall‐andmedium‐capones,reflectingthemarketconcernoverslowerqoqGDPgrowth,geopoliticalconflictsandregulatorypressure.Anyway,aspessimisticinvestorsexitedandnegativefactorswerepricedin,ShanghaiCompositemaystayinsidewaycorrections,andcontrarianinvestmentmaybeadvisableincaseofmarketsetbacks. Thekeypointofinvestmentstylesliesin“bluechipsornot”,ratherthan“growthstocksorvaluestocks”.In2024H1,bothvaluestocksofstablecashflowandgrowthstocksofupwardbusinessclimatebothrealizedgoodreturns.Butwithinvaluestocksandgrowthstocks,thereturnsoflarge‐capblue‐chiponesweremuchbetterthannon‐blue‐chipones.Intimeofcomplicatedgeopolitical,economicandsocialproblemsandundertougherregulatorypressure,riskappetitestayslowandmarketinterestisfocusingonthecompanieswithbetterproducts,businessordersandbusinessresultsaswellasreasonablestockvaluation,ratheronthecompaniesforstory‐tellingthematicspeculations.Suchpreferencehasbeenstrengthenedbythe“NineNewMeasuresofStateCouncilonCapitalMarket”(forbetter‐qualitylistedcompanies),thenewrulesondelisting(whichreducedthevalueofback‐doorlistingtarget)andtougherfinancialregulations. In2024Q2,fundsreducedtheirstockpositionsandturnedtosci‐techandnaturalresourcesstocksandHongKongstocks.Theoverallstockpositionfellby1.7%qoqto82.4%in2024Q2,butwithhigherholdingconcentrationandpositionchanges.First,fundsincreasedtheirpositionsoflarge‐cap(50/300)indexcomponentstocksandreducedtheirpositionsofsmall‐cap(1,000)indexcomponentstocks.Second,besidesresources,publicutilitiesandtransportationsectors,therewasabigincreaseofthepositionsofsci‐techstocks(e.g.electronic,telecom,warindustry)ofrisingbusinessclimate,andabigdecreaseofthepositionsoftraditionalheavy‐weightsectorssuchas consumerandpharmaceuticalsectors,ofwhich,thequarterlypositioncutofliquorsectorin2024Q2wasonlysmallerthanthatin2012Q4‐2013Q1and2018Q4.ThepercentageofHongKongstockpositionwasclosetotheprevioushighin2021.Becauseoftheabsenceofnewfunds,thetradingininsurancecapitalandcontrarianinvestorshadbiggermarginalinfluencesonthemarket. InviewoftheoverseasinterestratecutexpectationandthedomesticSTARmarketreformandindustrialclimate,weadvisetoincreasethepositionsofsci‐techblue‐chipstocks,andtonarrowthescopeofdividendassets.Tobespecific,werecommend(1)(sci‐techgrowthstocks)electronic,warindustry,telecomandmachinerysectors,andHongKonginternetstocks;(2)(dividendassets)telecomoperator,electricpower&publicutilities,coal,petrochemicalandbanking.Meanwhile,thetradingstructureisanotherimportantfactortotakeintoaccount. Risks:longer‐than‐expecteddurationofhighinterestratesoverseas;globalgeopoliticaluncertainties. LiquorIndustry(Overseas):SpecialReport ThedevelopmentofPernodRicardhasprovedthatthefeasibilityofthehigh‐endupgradingofdiversifiedliquorssuchasspirits,wines,aperitifsandliqueurs.Bymeansofexpandingproductrangeandmarketcoverage,andextendingproductionlinesandconsumptionscenarios,thecompanymanagedtoenhancebothprofitmarginandbusinessexpansion.Atthesametime,PernodRicard'smulti‐brandstrategyisalsoofreferencevaluetoChinesewinecompanies.Decentralizedmanagement,differentiatedbrandsandefficientintegrationofacquiredcompaniesaretheeffectivewaystoimplementmulti‐brandstrategy.Inrecentyears,theconcentrationrateofChina’sliquorandbeverageindustryhasbeenclimbingslowly,andtheleadingenterprise