Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [September24th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●FuturesMarketStrategy:UpdateReport ●PublicUtilitiesSector:UpdateReport ●SteelSector:SectorStrategy ●AosaikangPharma(002755):OW,TP@RMB14.66 ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:SpecialReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:UpdateReport LatestReports ●OppeinHome(603833):OW,TP@RMB71.10 ●Meta(META.O):OW,TP@USD577.00 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations FuturesMarketStrategy:UpdateReport Undertheinfluencesofbothinterestratecutandprofit‐taking,T‐bondfuturesreboundedquicklylastweekaftertheprevioussetbackwithlargertradingvolume.Inthemediumterm,thelong‐sidemarketsentimentmaycontinue,buttheoddsarestillbigfornear‐termtechnicaldecline.InSeptember,LPRremainedthesamelevelasthatofthepreviousmonth,indicatingpossiblefurthermonetaryeasing.Andcost‐efficiencyofbondassetshasalsomadebondmarketquitesafebeforelargeselling.However,becauseofthehightensionofthelong‐sidesentimentandthesignalsoftechnicaldecline,incaseofrisingexpectationsforadditionalT‐bondissuancesorsmaller‐than‐expectedRRRcut,T‐bondfuturesmayentershort‐termdeclineofaround0.5%~1%tobufferthemarketsentiment,whichcorrespondsto0.5bp~1bpand0.3bp~0.6bpof10Yand30YT‐bonds. PublicUtilitiesSector:UpdateReport Wemaintain“Overweight”ratingforthissector.Underthetightbalancebetweenthedemandandsupply,theelectricpowersystemreformsandthequasilong‐durationinterestratebondattributeoftheequityassetsofpublicutilitiessectormayhelptoimprovethevaluationofpublicutilitiessector. Ofsub‐sectorsandfeaturedcompanies,werecommend(1)thermalpower:(coal‐powerintegration,diversifieddevelopment,andstablebusinessperformance)GDPower(600795)andShenergy(600642);(2)hydropower:(valueinvestment)YangtzePower(600900)andChuantouEnergy(600674);(3)nuclearpower:(long‐termgrowthpotential,andlong‐termimpliedreturns)CGNPower(1816.HK)andChinaNuclearPower(601985);(4)alternativeenergy:(fastorganicgrowth)YunnanEnergyInvestment(002053). SteelSector:SectorStrategy Wemaintain“Overweight”ratingforthesteelsector.Higherbusinessconcentrationandhighqualityproductsarethegeneraltrendsofsteelindustry,fromwhich,theleadingmanufacturersandthemanufacturersofcompetitiveproductswilltakebenefit. Offeaturedcompanies,werecommend(1)keyrecommendations:(productstructureupgrading)ValinSteel(000932);(leadingtechnologiesandproductstructure)Baosteel(600019);(lowcostandbettermanagement)XinyuSteel(600782);(2)highbusinessclimateofspecialsteelandnewmaterials:(leadingspecialsteelproducers)CITICSpecialSteel(000708)andYongjinTech(603995);(domesticdemandforboilerandoilfieldpipes)WujinStainless(603878),JiuliMetals(002318)andShengtakNewMaterial(300881);(high‐temperaturealloys)TolandAlloy(300855);(newmaterials)POCO(300811)andXianglouNewMaterial(301160);(3)upstreamresources:HBISResources(000923),ErdosResources(600295),DazhongMining(001203)andAnning(002978). AosaikangPharma(002755):OW,TP@RMB14.66 [Rating:OW(Prv:N/A);TP:RMB14.66(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB10.20;Mkt‐Cap:RMB9467mn] TheCompanyhasaprofoundfoundationandengagesinbothgenericandinnovativedrugdevelopment.Nowitsinnovativedrugshaveenteredtheharvestseason.WeforecasttheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB0.12,0.22and0.31.Basedonbothabsoluteandrelativevaluationmethods,wesuggesttargetpriceofRMB14.66and“Overweight”rating. Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:SpecialReport Intermsoftheback‐testresultstheperformancesoftheequal‐weightandweightedSnapshotFactorindifferentstockpools,wefindthatSnapshotFactorhasbetterefficiencyinstockselectioninsmall‐andmedian‐capstockpools(e.g.CSI1000,CSI2000).Besidesstableperformances,itsexcessreturnsinmostbroad‐basedindexpoolsarealsogoodoverthepastfouryears. Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:UpdateReport Wemaintain“StandardPosition”forglobalequityassetsandbulkcommodities,butwithmoreoptimism.Andwemaintain“StandardPosition”forUSbonds,butwithmorecaution. Lastweek,ourDomesticActivePortfoliorecordedweeklyreturnof0.43%andexcessreturnof‐0.20%(c.f.benchmarkindexreturnof0.63%).AsofSeptember22nd,2024,DomesticActivePortfoliorecordedcumulativeexcessreturnof8.22%(annualizedreturnof40.98%)andcumulativeabsolutereturnof1.28%(annualizedreturnof5.68%),andGlobalActivePortfoliorecordedreturnof0.53%andexcessreturnof0.13%(c.f.benchmarkindexreturnof0.40%).AsofSeptember20th,2024,GlobalActivePortfoliorecordedcumulativeexcessreturnof2.21%(annualizedreturnof9.98%)andcumulativeabsolutereturnof4.23%(annualizedreturnof19.71%). LatestReports OppeinHome(603833):OW,TP@RMB71.10 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB71.10(Prv:RMB71.10);MP:RMB46.83;Mkt‐Cap:RMB28527mn] TheCompany’sdistributionplanforitsshareholdershashighlightedtheinvestmentvalueoftheCompany.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB4.74,5.04and5.56.WithreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompaniesandalsotakingintoaccounttheCompany’sleadingpositionincustom‐madefurnitureindustryandtheeffectofitspreviousorganizationalstructureadjustment,wemaintain