Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [July30th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●Food&BeverageSector:UpdateReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:GlobalAssetsActiveAllocationStrategy2024H2 ●FundMarket:SpecialReport LatestReports ●JasonFurniture(603816):OW,TP@RMB62.77 ●ContemporaryAmperex(300750):OW,TP@RMB287.75↑ ●Songyuan(300893):OW,TP@RMB37.40↑ SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations Food&BeverageSector:UpdateReport Comparedtothepreviousbottomofthebusinessclimate,thedeclineofdemandandexpectationsissmallerbutlongerthistime.Atpresent,theliquorsectorissubjecttotheimpactsfromthelowseasonandhigh‐endliquorwholesaleprices.Meanwhile,theriskappetiteislow.Onthewhole,themarketconcernoversolidbusinessresultsoverwhelmstheconcernovergrowthpotential.Offeaturedcompanies,wesuggest“Overweight”ratingfor(1)(stablesales)KweichowMoutai(600519),FenWine(600809),YingjiaDistillery(603198)andGujingDistillery(000596); (2)(oversoldinstockmarket)Wuliangye(000858),LuzhouLaojiao(000568),King’sLuckBrewery(603369)andLaobaiganLiquor(600559). Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:GlobalAssetsActiveAllocationStrategy2024H2 EquityAssets: (1)ChinaA‐Shares:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.ThegeneraltrendofChina’seconomicoperation,thoughwithsomevolatilities,remainsgood.Thespeedofrecoveryisveryslow.Themarkethasfullypricedinsuchconditions.Monetaryliquiditymaybecometightened,marginally.Riskappetitewillseetomarketexpectations. (2)HongKongStocks:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.Theeconomicoutlookisrelativelystable,andtheabsolutelevelandmarginalchangesofindustrialprofitshavebeenbothfullypricedin,probably.Butforeignfunds,whichdeterminethepricingofHongKongstocks,arestillsubjecttotightliquidity. (3)USStocks:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.USeconomyisverylikelytorealizea“softlanding”,withstrongresilience.FedReservemayresorttolimitedpolicyeasing.Intimeofcontinuedhighriskappetite,unexpectedeventsmayamplifythevolatilitiesofUSstockmarket. (4)IndianStocks:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.Healthyeconomicoperationandpositivemacroenvironmentfavortheriseofequityassets,inadditiontothehighproportionoftheyoungpopulationandthehugeeconomicgrowthpotential.However,therisinguncertaintiesofthedomesticpoliticalenvironmentinIndiaareanegativefactortoitscapitalmarket. (5)JapaneseStocks:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.Macroenvironmentisameliorating,followingtheslowrecoveryofeconomicclimate,endogenousinflationandgrossdemand.DespitebettermarketexpectationsfortherisingprofitsofJapaneseenterprises,theeconomicrecoveryofJapanisnotasstableasexpected,anditseconomicfundamentalsremainweak. Bonds (1)ChinaT‐bonds:Optimisticoutlook&Overweighposition.Weakfinancingdemandandinsufficientcreditsupplyfavorthedeclineofbondrates.Butduetothehighcongestionofbondtransactionsatpresent,thedeclineofbondrateswillbe smallerandslowerlater. (2)UST‐bonds:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.BecauseofthestrongresilienceofUSeconomy,themonetaryeasingofFedReservelatershouldbelimited.Eveninterestcutcomestrue,itwillbea“precautious”interestcutinsteadofa“recessionary”one.HugeglobalgeopoliticaluncertaintiesareanotherbigthreattoUST‐bondin2024H2. Commodities (1)CRBCommodities:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.TheresilienceofUSeconomyisgoingtodepressbothglobal‐pricedanddomestic‐pricedcommoditiesinthemediumrun.Whentheinterestcutcyclestarts,themanufacturingindustryexpansioninemergingmarketsandthecontinueddomesticpolicysupportwillhelptosustaincommodityprices. (2)CrudeOil:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.Theinventoriesanddemandsidearenotinfavorofglobalcrudeoilprices.Asforthesupplyside,therepeatedmarketspeculationsontheoutputreductionof“OPEC+”andtheoutputincreaseofUSmayprolongthefluctuationsofcrudeoilpricesinfuture. (3)Gold:Optimisticoutlook&Overweighposition.Becausethedeclineofnear‐termrealUST‐bondrateshasbeenconfirmedandmajorcommoditiespricesmaykeeponfluctuating,goldmaystayhighforbeingasafehavenasset. InternationalExchangeRate (1)RMB:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.StrongresilienceofUSeconomyisabigsupporttoUS$.ButRMBisalsosupportedbyChina’ssolideconomicrecoveryanditsfaster‐than‐USGDPgrowth. (2)US$:Neutraloutlook&Standardposition.USeconomywillremainresilient,withmildcontractionpossibly.Industrialcapital’sinvestmentinUSrealeconomyandglobalcapital’spurchaseofUST‐bondsaretwoanothertwostrongsupportstoUS$. Risks:Limitationsofanalysisperspectives;subjectivityinmodeldesign;discrepancybetweenrealdataandestimations;changesofmarketconsensusexpectations;limitationsofquantitativemodels. FundMarket:SpecialReport In2024Q2,China’seconomykeptonfluctuating;assetthirstcontinued;bondmarketinterestratesmoveddownward.Pure‐bondfundsandfixed‐income‐plusfundsbothincreasedtheirpositionsofinterestratebondsagain.Fixed‐income‐plusfundsreducedtheirpositionsofequityandconvertiblebondassets.Asforsectorallocation,infrastructurefacilitiesandcyclicalsectorsremainedthemarketfavorites. LatestReports JasonFurniture(60