中国零售市场在过去一年中持续扩张,消费升级和新消费形式的扩张推动了零售市场的复苏。2024年上半年,中国消费品零售总额达到23.6万亿元,同比增长3.7%。服务类和升级类产品销售额增长迅速。
截至2024年第二季度,中国16个主要城市核心市场的总建筑面积达到1125万平方米。中国零售物业市场进一步集中,一些运营良好的购物中心持续升级设施和品牌组合,吸引消费者,而一些经营不善的商业中心则出现空置率上升。
2024年,中国零售市场的主要趋势包括:
- 传统商业零售项目升级:购物中心积极进行设施升级和体验空间创造,丰富业态和服务,满足消费者需求。
- 零售物业REITs:REITs市场显著复苏,为零售物业提供更多融资渠道,促进消费,并提升资产结构优化和资本周转效率。
- 绿色消费:绿色消费成为主流,消费者更倾向于绿色出行、二手商品交易和环保产品。
- 文化和旅游消费:旅游市场增长,乡村旅游和入境旅游成为热点,带动相关消费场景和业态发展。
主要城市零售市场趋势:
- 北京:新增大量高端零售空间,购物中心持续升级,消费升级压力下,部分品牌关闭门店。
- 上海:新增供应主要集中在核心商圈,平均空置率下降,奢侈品、时尚配饰等需求强劲。
- 深圳:新增供应带动零售物业总量增长,奢侈品和特色零售增长迅速,消费升级趋势明显。
- 广州:商业区空置率上升,品牌关注成本控制,租金水平下降,但高端购物中心需求旺盛。
- 成都:新增供应主要集中在商业综合体,消费升级压力下,部分项目空置率上升。
- 杭州:消费市场持续复苏,品质消费活跃,新增供应带动零售市场发展,购物中心转型升级。
- 香港:入境游客数量回升,零售市场复苏,高端品牌租赁活跃,但本地消费增长放缓。
- 台北:旅游市场复苏,购物中心空置率下降,品牌积极拓展新店,消费场景多元化。
展望未来,中国零售市场将继续保持增长态势,消费升级和新消费形式将成为主要驱动力。主要城市零售市场将面临更多挑战,但也存在发展机遇。
ADVANCING THROUGHINNOVATION
SEPTEMBER 2024
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
The GeneralMarket
S'nce 2c2/, Crina has laJrcred seria= ct "Ccrsumpticr Prooticr Ye-"etivitiz? te p'ormore tre "olo her new orcduct trace ir" pplicy, tiereby testerirglsterdy co 1slmot'o1 growth. Prcvicirg 'Lrther suEpor: tcr econcrm'c ra=cvery.Cina's totl retail sal== of consu mer gcocs reachecl RMB23. r Ilion in H1 2o2.up 3.7% y o y.
moenum into tre tutJre as new types ct ccrsumpticr will con.inue to ererg=.
by introclucing new teciro cg es, new retail 'ormsts, and rew mocel: tccortirlojsly iprove service and shopp'ng experizrcas. n ter ms o' supply aidcemand. te msin tocus treids :h's yea'are ss fcl ows:.
By Q2 2o21. the tota prire retail orcpe'ty stock in tre core markets in t7e 16Ma,o- citia in crester Chira we trac< cctalled 112.5 mi licn sq m. Tre ccmoesitionir the Ch'nese retail orcpaty ma'ket has fjrther intarsitied.vhile som= wellooerated shopp'ng centra: continJed to uogrrda their faci ities. their orancmixture d t1=ir servica= tc a:tract consumers, scme oter Jnd=rpto*mingshcpoing cen.res cont nuecl to see tenant leaksge. erding to tur:h' divergenceir terms ct bsiness oertor mrnce nmongs: retai sroppiig ca-tre orcjec:s.
••••Traditicral comnercin retnil orcjec: upgracling:Retai proper-y C REITs:Cu cural anc to Jris n consunption, and;Green ccrsumpticr
ooking at :ha 'ncivicual major cities ir Greatar Chira, many domesti= ardincernat'oial borands ccntiruec to exoanc treir bl siress I nes durirg the past year.
Maanwhile, the Thirc P enary Session ot the 2o:h CFc Central Conmitteeemohas sed the impo ta 1ce o' =t'vel: exprding co mes.ic cemand.ccelertiig the davalcpment ct a complete domesti= consumption demardC rina': seyice consumpticn is expacteo to ma n:air scl.no deve oomen:
Glob:l eccromi= waakness ard clcmest'c eccromic slowdown sro Jlc lead tomore cautious sperding. However, ir cons deraticr cf tre increasirg disocaoletor tia level cf rata I market grow:h is tfat it is exoec:ed tc con.inue to remain in
SHANGHAI
GUANgZHOU
BEIJING
SHENZHEN
ma met.J reaaree st.ppait to the cirawtlpast year. 7/ snoppingi c.artras we:leronpleted m 11> 2c2. arn 11 >0>4. silangnalaclcled over 1.56 mi lor s: M af naw piimeetail slpn y urig te: ast yeal. nglng tnitys pr me: reta 1 stock tc: annrox mately 7.:.4m Ilic* so IY.
Ihne cpenllng af r a:: :ralc:: 1 r>s wilhTh: tpnirg oi more shofis, 'n sfifing c:lr:.Ihn FN :.l h:1. or .he: 1 yna. Au>m:in:l :n l Fosi.ivc: 1an;li>r; )vc: c:citywide vacancy rate oawn o. percentageoIrts from I1 2z. to H.4%. a record low sllncez 2tz2. Pr me space 'ental levelsas , r.Jarter tc, RMl12.1 par Ac m per mo nt2,reflect ng lanclrcls' casitive attitt.eas :owarosthna ma'ret.
Th (ivrall cc:.r r ara: r:ar ain.prassure. Altnou cu semer footfall hasreboundled a lot over tre past vecr, treove 'u I cor'st, mption power rorr ai': 'subdu ud.As l H1 7074, .h ,viragr: t.k'ng rc1.al inrne c. ty drcppexl sligntl t -M1z,20 e sm pe* mn.h, ancl th vacsncy rate rses ight + to 10.6%.
signi'ital ly. Pr'm: sh:>>>ing txen.ro in ca>r<:subimarkets with supe"o- loc.ans al?strcrg ope'atkonal cacabilities cantle t bethe first r ice for :elants whel openingl newstores, ald vacacy rates In acre st αmarketslk la : A to euvacancy rate rosa y 1.1 nercantacle p nts y-me j noe ,e : ar s"Supp y * ol'-cate st.bmaikets.
cortint.ad to see: the avetag vac.ancy ra.eaap. in saite af a arg almlnt f new slpp yer'tengi tne marke: d.drig :he naat year. Liyfor silharg a s micl- : higlh-ard shoppincrentres rrasecl t 9..5z%. dcw .6paraentaga polnts -o-c ancdl c.26 ne:antagepalnts y-a-y. 1is Is, tne lawest vaaancy ratefor silnarga's prm*a ieta I praparty markets nca c27. rdamnsrrating an 1nahatexgrow ng aanard *nr pr me: rn:all space frammany brars.
I thu purst yar, Brij ng's reteil rr'arku. nl'sbr shr:cily -ifigr adr:d. Slc::irg cenireshave t.o atir .Jecl ro drversify thelr brands, andfashior reteil nd casu=l -arerir brars inpart'cular, have sean posiive lousinessperformec.
new s.Jpply throt gn to the encl cf 2i325. Lt.xuryαrancls are exparirg. whil more shaps withIr novative elemen:s alnd Jnlct. xperlences areset ta open. with a ole prcactive s.rate-dy fLIl Julalaacaclul auy pue n bu ueoIrfrastr.Jc.tu'e. :urists from otrer ca.Jtrles a nclfra m tlhie wester sicle of :he Fearl K ver Lstualyale expecteo to ct the rew crivirg "arcesceh ncl he crowtn af silanzinen's ca nsuipt on.Ihe ttade-Ir o" cold consumer goods. thetha opt misat an af the busles enviranmertlvers catio c" con.Jptin scearios amay alsa hel :α noost cans.Jnpt