铅月报：供需有望边际改善 预计铅价重心上移

供需有望边际改善 预计铅价重心上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 原料端，全球铅精矿供应延续恢复态势，铅精矿进口窗口开启时间较长，叠加进口粗铅补充，内外加工费止跌回暖，原生铅炼厂原料供给改善。受783号令影响持货商抛售，废旧电瓶供应边际改善但不改供不应求格局，价格仍易涨难跌。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端，9月原生铅炼厂检修增多，大型企业局部或小幅检修，中小型企业停产检修应对高库存，预计供应环比回落。再生铅方面，前期检修炼厂复产增多，且集中在月下旬，再生铅供应预计环比增加。不过沪伦比价回落后，精铅及铅材进口转亏，进口货源冲击有望减缓。 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，消费旺季有所推迟，随着开学季到来及电动自行车以旧换新政策加持，消费存改善预期，同时，沪伦比价回落后精铅及电池出口订单有望恢复，消费旺季仍可期待。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，原再炼厂检修复产并存，进口货源流入减少，供应压力将缓解，同时政策加持及出口改善的背景下，消费存边际好转预期，供减需增的背景下，铅价重心有望上移，预计9月沪铅主要波动区间17000-18300元/吨。 王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 策略建议：逢低做多，买入看涨期货或卖出看跌期权 风险因素：海外衰退风险，消费旺季不旺 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海内外铅矿产量渐恢复...................................................42.1.2铅矿进口窗口维持开启，内外加工费报价改善..............................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2原生铅炼厂检修复产并存，预计供应环比小降..............................82.2.3废旧电瓶价格回落，再生铅利润限制生产积极性............................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费尚无旺季表现.............................................112.3.2 .1沪伦比价回落，利空铅进口利多铅及电池出口...........................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................132.4全球显性库存去库........................................................14三、总结与后市展望........................................................15 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）............................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................6图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................6图表5内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................6图表6铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表7铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表8银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表9全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................7图表11原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表12原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表13 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表14再生精铅产量情况......................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格加速上涨................................................................................................10图表17再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................10图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................11图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................11图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................12图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................12图表24精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................12图表25精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表26精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................12图表27精炼铅进口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表28铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................13图表29汽车产量情况.....................................................................