锌月报：消费预期改善 锌价震荡重心上移

消费预期改善 锌价震荡重心上移 核心观点及策略 要点要点要点宏观面看，欧美央行7月加息符合预期，后期加息持开放态度，年内难降息。欧美经济数据喜忧参半，衰退担忧淡化。国内政策定调积极，超市场预期，经济有望企稳回升。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端看，海外矿企上半年产出多不及预期，全球锌矿供应存再收缩的可能，有望改善锌元素过剩局面。欧洲炼厂暂未有新增复产消息，国内炼厂如期检修，供应压力放缓，但炼厂利润已修复，不排除后期提产及检修延后。同时，进口货源持续补充下，供应总体偏宽松。 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端来看，海外消费具韧性，但不改过剩局面，LME库存回升，仍有交仓压力。国内刺激政策覆盖到锌各个终端消费，地产政策优化，专项债发行提速，基建及地产板块受益，消费政策利多汽车及家电板块，后期关注政策实际落地情况。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，目前支撑锌价反弹的更多在情绪及预期层面，现实层面需求并未脱离淡季表现，后期需求改善实际情况仍需观察库存及升水变化。供应端依然保持高弹性，基本面尚未明显改善。此外，海外伴随着就业及通胀数据公布，也不排除后期加息路径预期出现摇摆。在宏观与基本面缺乏共振下，锌价反弹持续性较差，预计8月宽幅运行，区间20400-21500元/吨。 策略建议：逢低做多 风险因素：宏观风险，消费兑现不及预期 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................52.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................62.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................6 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................93.1.1全球锌矿供应过剩量级收窄...............................................................................................93.1.2锌矿进口补充较充裕，加工费后期存回调压力...........................................................103.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................113.2.1全球精炼锌供应逐步恢复.................................................................................................113.2.2产量下滑+进口补充，国内供应维持宽松........................................................................133.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................153.3.1上半年海外需求尚有韧性，下半年下滑预期或改善.....................................................153.3.2国内精炼锌初端板块分化，镀锌板出口季节性下滑.....................................................163.3.3国内精炼锌终端需求分化，政策刺激落地有望改善终端消费.....................................173.4海外库存快速回升，国内库存维持低位......................................20 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................5图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................7图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................7图表4美国GD..........................................................................................................................8图表5美国GD.........................................................................................................................8图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................8图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................8图表8国内PMI数据..............................................................................................................8图表9国内GDP同比增速....................................................................................................8图表10海外主要上市矿企产量情况（万吨）......................................................................9图表11全球锌矿月度产量情况.............................................................................................10图表12国内锌矿月度产量情况.............................................................................................10图表13外矿加工费继续分化.................................................................................................10图表14锌矿进口窗口开启周期较长.....................................................................................10图表15锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................11图表16炼厂原料库存............................................................................................................11图表17全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................12图表18欧洲天然气期货价格................................................................................................12图表19欧洲主要国家电价....................................................................................................12图表20欧洲天然气库存........................................................................................................12图表21 2021年四季度至今欧洲冶炼厂减复产情况（万吨）............................................12图表22海外主要上市矿企精炼锌产量情况（万吨）........................................................13图表23 2022-2023年国内新增冶炼产能（万吨）...............................................................14图表24国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................14图表25冶炼厂生产利润.................................................................