铅月报：供应收紧需求改善，铅价重心上移

供应收紧需求改善 铅价重心上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 宏观面看，市场降息预期抢跑，谨防出现摇摆，美元偏弱但难趋势下行。国内宏观基调维持偏好，强刺激政策预期下滑。 供应端看，铅矿进口维持亏损且国内矿山季节性检修增加，内外加工费均环比回落，原料维持紧张。废旧电瓶延续供不应求且12月降雪增加运输难度，价格企稳上涨。12月原生铅炼厂检修复产并存，检修持至1月中下旬，供应边际下滑。再生铅受原料供应缺口、利润较差及环保限产影响，供应大幅回落。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68556855huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看,海外消费相对偏弱，国内电动自行车需求处淡季，但汽车更换需求伴随天气转冷边际好转，同时汽车产销维持向好，整车配套电池需求延续正增速，及储能板块依旧带来增量。 高慧021-68556855gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 总的来看,宏观相对偏暖，基本面供应端收紧，需求端存改善预期，供减需增下利多铅价，同时成本支撑也有所上抬，预计铅价震荡重心上移，主要运行区间在15500-16500元/吨。 策略建：逢低做多，跨期反套 风险因素：炼厂规模复产，需求不及预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅矿供应温和增长，原料维持紧张格局.................................42.1.2内外加工费有望低位企稳，国内仍需进口矿补充............................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2新增产能助推原生铅产量攀升，但原料限制产量释放........................82.2.3再生铅仍处产能投放期，废旧电瓶紧张限制产量增速........................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................112.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................112.3.2铅蓄电池需求平稳，下半年高价负反馈明显...............................122.3.2 .1精炼铅及铅酸蓄电池出口表现亮眼，缓解过剩压力.......................132.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................142.4内外库存均低位回升......................................................15 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿年度产量情况.................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表4 2024年海外铅矿新增（万吨）....................................................................................6图表5 2022-2023年国内铅精矿新增产能（万吨）...............................................................6图表6内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................7图表7铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................7图表8铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表9银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表10全球精炼铅月度产量...................................................................................................8图表11 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表12原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表13原生铅炼厂开工率.......................................................................................................9图表14 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................9图表15再生铅产量情况........................................................................................................11图表16再生铅企业开工率....................................................................................................11图表17 2023年国内再生铅新扩建与复产产能（万吨).......................................................11图表18 2023年国内再生铅新扩建与复产产能（万吨).......................................................11图表19废电池价格延续回落................................................................................................11图表20再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................11图表21全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................12图表22全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................12图表23美国汽车销量情况.....................................................................................................12图表24欧元区汽车销量情况.................................................................................................12图表25铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................13图表26铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................13图表27精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................13图表28精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................13图表29铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................15图表30汽车产量情况............................................................................................................15图表31汽车保有量................................................................................................................15图表32电动自行车保有量...................