铅月报：成本支撑强化，铅价重心上移

成本支撑强化 铅价重心上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 ⚫宏观面看，美国经济较稳定，降通胀道路曲折，降息紧迫性不强，6月美联储首次降息节点预期仍有摇摆。国内政策基调中性偏多，经济景气度回升。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 ⚫供应端看，国内矿山生产处于恢复期，海外部分矿山生产有扰动，加剧铅矿供应紧张，成本支撑增强。受原料紧张影响，湖南、河南大型原生铅炼厂检修减产增多，叠加铅锭新旧国标过渡期，市场担忧4月合约交割问题，然目前交易所仓单较高且可交割厂库库存较同期水平相当，交割担忧降温。再生铅炼厂利润修复，供应稳中有增，可弥补原生铅炼厂检修的减量。 黄蕾021-68556855huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫需求端看，海外消费未有显著改善，LME库存再创新高。国内铅蓄电池消费进入传统淡季，电动自行车及汽车蓄电池订单下滑，企业开工率仍有回落预期。终端板块分化，汽车配套电池需求仍有期待，储能电池有小幅增长预期。 高慧021-68556855gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫整体来看，担忧情绪释放后铅价回归基本面，供需仍显宽松，缺乏持续上冲动力，下方空间受成本端支撑约束。预计4月铅价宽幅震荡走势，区间小幅上移至16000-17000元/吨。 王工建021-68556855wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫策略建：逢高沽空 ⚫风险因素：国内挤仓，国内需求回落不及预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4 二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海外矿山供应扰动，铅矿供应再度收紧.....................................42.1.2内外铅矿加工费弱势，仍需进口货源补充..................................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2原生铅炼厂检修增多，产量环比有望转跌..................................72.2.3废旧电瓶窄幅波动，再生铅产量稳中有升..................................82.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2进入消费淡季，铅蓄电池企业开工率有望回落.............................112.3.2 .1精炼铅出口同比回落，铅蓄电池同比增加...............................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................122.4海外库存延续大增，国内去库..............................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）............................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况.................................................................................................5图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表5内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................6图表6铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表7铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表8银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................6图表9全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................7图表11原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表12原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表13 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表14再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格企稳回升..................................................................................................9图表17再生铅企业利润情况..................................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表24精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................12图表25精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表26铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................13图表27汽车产量情况............................................................................................................13图表28汽车保有量................................................................................................................13图表29电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................13图表30电动车产量情况.......................................